NCAA TNF - #3 Clemson @ North Carolina St The line has been hovering around 14. The squarer shops have 14 and the
sharper ones are mostly 13.5. CRIS is the low at -13. Based on market info,
taking 14.5 would be an obvious play for value shoppers. The Thurs nite
home dog has been a tough subset to buck so resistance at 14 is to be expected.
New NC St head coach Dave Doeren ran a highly successful program at N Illinois
and compiled an impressive resume after just two years there. Interesting to
note that he did not lose a home game with Huskies. 6-0 both seasons there
and now you are getting two TDs in a nationally televised game vs a team
that is ranked #3 in the nation. Wolfpack is 2-0 at home this year as they play
their third of four straight there to open the season. Both teams played FCS schools
11 days ago so both are well rested. Big concern on Wolfpack side is their offense.
QB position is in transition. 0 TDs and 3 INTs vs the likes of La Tech and Richmond
could mean trouble. Their junior QB is a transfer from Col St where he threw for
more INTs than TDs both seasons there (7/8 and 11/13 last two years).
The primary skill players for NC St are freshmen. The inexperience showed
some last week as they turned the ball over four times to FCS school Richmond.
On the Clemson side, they lost their 2nd WR in practice this week but still have
an NFL caliber guy left in Watkins to throw to. Adam Humphries stepping in for the injured
Peake is competent and experienced (41 catches in 2012) but it's all short stuff, avging
just 7 yds per recep career. Taj Boyd destroyed this team last year in Clemson throwing
for 5 TDs, 426 yds AND rushing for 3 more TDs and 100 yds as the Tigers
racked up over 700 yds of offense. This is a big reason why this total is in the
upper 60s. It will be tough for the public to lay off either Clemson or the Over but a case
can be made for fading both. The total may be the better play given NC Sts offensive
struggles plus the fact that in this spot you'd expect the defense to step up if any unit
will for Wolfpack. In 2011 NC St held Clemson to 13 pts here and they also held #3
ranked Fla St to 16 pts here a year ago so the history is there to suggest a good
showing on defense is possible, even vs this opponent. I'm leaning to playing the
Under if total continues to rise. Would probably need 68 to take the plunge.
One bet that may be worth a look is taking Clemson to score first -200.
Dabo Sweeney is a coach who takes the ball when he wins the coin-flip and
Dave Doeren has a history of deferring while at N Illinois. With a real good
chance that Clemson gets the ball first, laying 2-1 can be justified here.
