New Mexico Bowl - Col St/ Wash St Line opened Wash St -3.5 and has been bet up to 4.5.
Total opened 66 and has hung around that number.
Col St is coached by Jim McElwain, the former Alabama OC during
the 2011 Championship season. In his second season with the Rams
he has put together a pretty good offense led by Soph RB Kapri Bibbs.
He led the nation in TDs with 28 and although he certainly will be the
cornerstone of their 2014 offense, I expect SR RB Chris Nwoke to get
a token amount of carries. He has over 2400 yds at Col St in his career so
as a senior he should get a handful of totes in his first and only bowl game.
Still, put Bibbs down for 25-30 carries and close to 150 yds on the
ground. If there is one prop that will be hard for the books to price
on Bibbs it may be YES/NO that he scores a TD. Anything less the
YES -300 is probably worth looking at and YES a TD in 1H should be
close to -180. Bibbs has scored 24TDs in the last seven games as
he did not start the season as the primary back. Based on his output
from the point he became starter the line on his TDs for the game
should be a solid 3! That's unheard of but I'll at least try to get some
bet in that he finds pay dirt if they hang anything reasonable.
For Wash St, coached by pass-happy Mike Leach, it will be a whole lot
of balls in the air. QB Conner Halliday had the crazy stat line of 55 for 89
for 557 yds vs Oregon. Throwing the ball 89 times in a game is something
I've never seen before and with 6 to 8 worthy receivers to see playing time,
somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 attempts in this game sounds
about right. The Cougars have four players with 6 or more TDs this
year but WR Dom Williams seems the most likely to have a big game.
The Col St CBs are very weak and he is the big play guy for Wash St,
avging 16.5 ypc. In addition to a lot of short passes to the other
receivers to try and take advantage of some of the poor tackling by the
Rams, look for them to take some shots downfield with Williams.
I certainly like Wash St to have the longest TD in this game and long
TD ov 52 or less looks good as well.
Col St has the better kicker in this game in All-MWC Jared Roberts
who is 5/6 from 40-49 and 2/2 from 50+ this year. If they put up
a prop on longest FG take Col St. He is NFL material.
Charlie J sent out the OV 65 in this game and it would be hard to argue against
it. Col St has scored 50 or more on four different occasions this season and
it's 35.3 ppg is a dramatic improvement over the 21.2 ppg of a year ago.
Yes, a lot of the damage was done vs weaker opposition (Col St 7 wins
were vs teams with a combined 21-53 record) but they should be able to
crack 30 vs this team. Wash St will just throw the ball all day. They averaged
less then 60 ypg rushing this year after avging less then 30 ypg the previous
year. 65 is still available at Caesars and Stations. Offshore I do not see any 65
available. Best out there is 65.5.
