PStone's 5 CFB selections for 9/24/11

PStone's 5 CFB selections for 9/24/11 Unfortunately don't have time for much explanation, but am trying to contribute to the forum. Hopefully, somebody finds some value in my posts. Here's five for Saturday: [B]Baylor -20[/B] _ RG III can throw the ball all over the yard and the Owls have consistently fielded one of the worst pass defenses in CFB in recent years. Kendall Wright has a 12-catch. 150-yard type of performance here. [B]Alabama - 11.5[/B] _ A little bit leery about laying this many points, but the Hogs' offensive line is still somewhat green (averaged 3.3 ypc against Missouri State when Knile Davis was healthy) and the Crimson Tide is almost certain to force still-developing QB Tyler Wilson into some quick decisions with bad results. [B]Nebraska -23.5[/B] _ Taylor Martinez and the Huskers are liable to hang some nasty numbers in Laramie, plus Wyoming's victory over Bowling Green was more a function of decisively winning the turnover battle than overall performance. [B]Notre Dame-Pitt OVER 53[/B] _ Long range forecast calls for possibility of showers, but see the total moving higher so I'll take my chances. Pitt has had trouble defending the pass to date and now has to face Michael Floyd and company which doesn't bode well. Both teams play fairly fast. [B]Louisiana Tech-Mississippi State OVER 55[/B] _ Sonny Dykes' up-tempo offensive style is starting to take hold in Ruston, but Louisiana Tech is ill equipped to slow down a SEC caliber offense which will be out to put some offensive stats in the book after last week's poor numbers against LSU. YTD: 2-1 ATS

Dan Mullen really went conservative against LSU in an attempt to avoid the 5 turnovers they had the previous time they played LSU the year before. Good thing was that it looked awful and was on national TV. Thought that would create immediate value with Miss st. in this game but it didn't come out in the side, it has in the total. This total is low 60's had this game been played last week before the LSU game occured. Miss St will come out and run their stuff this week.

I know Paul is fully focused on college football. Small sample, but note how he NAILS two college totals that move 2-4 points in his favor! Shows how the early week college totals market is still very beatable. AS for Ala, the problem IMO with these SEC powerhouse favorites is the fact the games all have 50 points, not 65. So while the big12 juggernauts win 44-23, the SEC big boys tend to win these games 31-20.

Fezz: You advised me a couple of years ago to consider focusing more on college totals and that has certainly improved my bottom line as a sports handicapper (Thanks for the advice!). For the exact reasons you point out, I am leery of laying the points with Alabama and could be kicking myself late tomorrow afternoon. But the Razorbacks are awfully green in the offensive line with three new starters replacing a trio of three-year starters; have Tyler Wilson making his first road start in quite the inhospitable setting; and will be without their top defensive player, Jake Bequette. Plus the Hogs averaged 3.1 yards per carry against Missouri State when Knile Davis was still healthy and now face an Alabama front seven that has little in common with the Bears and Ronnie Wingo just has not lived up to the expectations he brought to Fayetteville. I just cannot see the Razorbacks winning this game and feel like a two-touchdown plus outcome is the most probable outcome. You're dead on however: Laying double digit points in a conference where the final scores tend to be lower is not a long-term winning approach. Good luck this weekend, Paul

Pablo, Thanks for the plays and the winners so far. Good Luck Hook em