A Saturday 12/29 Prop - GENO SMITH TD Passes 3' I only evaluate props or totals that use a Poisson distribution. So I was happy to see this one:
12/29 - GENO SMITH TD PASSES
UNDER 3' -140
OVER 3' +120
I'm showing a mean of 3.33. With a straight Poisson distribution, a fair line would be -132 on the under. However, Smith had a monster game earlier in the season with 8 TD passes. If you consider that an outlier and either (1) readjust the mean or (2) re-assign the outlier game with the mode of either 3 or 4 and then re-calculate the Poisson, you end up with a fair line of -172 or -194. Therefore, I am taking the UNDER on this one.
