Square Plays for 10/1 This will be my first week posting picks for College Football. It has been a tough year for me so far but had a winning week last week. Want to write up some of my plays, hopefully spark some discussion.
115 Wake Forest PK
Going against the line moving back towards BC. Surely BC will be relying more on the RB Harris to help the offense but I do not think that will be enough to keep up with scoring with Wake. Wake has hardly been tested this year, but I think the QB Price is very good and BC has issues at the QB position with no real play makers at WR to help him. Also I am not a believer in the BC defense. Wake Forest has averaged 80 plays per game compared to BC 62.7 and only 50 when they are on the road. Both teams will have very tough opponents in the ACC after this game so should be really focused on getting this win. I like Wake coming off the bye week to prepare for a BC offense that will probably be one dimensional.
136 E. Michigan -8.5
Two bad teams here, but I think Akron is much worse. E. Michigan coming off playing @Penn St and @Michigan should be motivated against a team they will be more evenly matched with. I like Gillett to be able to make some plays for E.Mich and give them some scores against a defense from what I can tell has issues. E.Michigan had some positives against Penn St; more than the final score would indicate. They had 3 turnovers before the half, two of those coming on QB sacks and fumbles. Penn St O and D line dominated but it was still only a 17-0 lead at the half. I didn't really understand E.Mich opting to kick the FG from the 5 when they were down 34-3 with like 4 minutes to go, but have to think they will be motivated for this game and try and score as many as they can.
149 UCLA +21
So far in the season I would have Stanford as one of the more over valued teams. This line has to be largely based on the perception of what they were last year. One could say they have had one of the easiest schedules thus far and I am supposed to believe they are a top 10 team. I would be curious as to how those of you who do power rankings have Stanford ranked. The game @Arizona should have/could have been much closer. Arizona FG kicker missed going into and coming out of the half when it was only a 6 point game. In addition Arizona has not been able to run the ball at all, and UCLA should be able to. Maybe UCLA has finally found their QB even though he did not throw the ball much against OreST. Rick always seems to come up with some surprises on the road against better teams and I think this could be one of them.
154 Ohio St -3
Really not sure what to make of the Mich St. offense thus far. The offense has not really shown much and they seem to be having a very limited playbook with Cousins at QB. In my opinion this team is not really equipped to score enough against a good defense. Ohio St maybe a bit over rated, but I like this spot laying only 3. I think also this is the last game for those suspensions for the Ohio St players, so the backups playing should have some extra motivation to make a case to keep some playing time. This one could be a grind it out game, would lean toward the under, but more confident with Ohio St covering.
176 Georgia -7
Miss St probably an overrated team starting the season, and now they seem to be showing what they really are. Maybe they were not motivated enough at home against a dangerous uptempo LA Tech team, but the offense was not sharp. Only 3-16 on 3rd down against LA Tech and gained only 340 yards. Previous LA Tech opponents had averaged almost 425 yards against them. Relf is not a good passer. After he threw the INT against LA Tech to start the fourth QTR, they called only 3 more passes for him; 2 in the fourth (both incomplete) and 1 in OT only after Miss ST had intercepted LA Tech's 1st OT possession. The defense also has issues and Georgia RB#1 should have a big day. Georgia's offense was not as sharp as they could have been against Ole Miss, but they made plays when they needed to and the kicker uncharacteristically missed 3 FG. This kept the score closer than it probably should have been and probably has an influence on this line being only 7. Ole Miss also scored on a punt return right before half that in my opinion was an more of an anomaly than anything else. Might still be able to get 6.5, but no problem laying 7.
204 Middle Tenn St. -23.5
I am not sure what planet I live on when I want to lay 24 points on an 0-3 Sun Belt team. Memphis is bad and they are hard to watch; I have tried. Middle Tenn should be looking for some payback after losing last year (pretty sure it was Memphis only win) and this Mid Tenn team has actually been able to move the ball pretty effectively against some decent opposition. I am not sure on the numbers, but you could have probably made a living betting against this Memphis team over the last couple of years. I think that trend will continue with this game.
188 Wisconsin -10
I got 9.5 but it looks as though it is mostly 10 now. Neither one of these teams has had to really rely on the passing game to win yet, this game will be different. I have little confidence in the Nebraska QB passing ability and do not think they will be able to just run, run run against this Wisconsin defense. You know both teams have had this game circled as Nebraska wants to make a statement in the Big 10 and Wisconsin wants to establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big 10. The Wisconsin QB is very good, they have depth at RB and a good enough offensive line that should be able to hold up against the Nebraska front. Wisconsin QB is excellent at escaping under pressure. The Nebraska QB is as well, but I just do not think the Wisconsin D will be as concerned with him throwing it. He is not very accurate and from what I can tell has a pretty weak arm. I know 10 could be a lot in a game like this but going to gamble on Wisconsin getting up early and making a statement.
181 Clemson/VT OVER 50.5
Clemson gets off 84 plays per game on average, they are also one of the top teams for 3rd down conversions. I am not sure on how good this VT defense is, but they will have a tough time stopping this Clemson offense. Both teams should put up some points in this game, Clemson seems content to score with whoever they are playing.
Thanks and good luck to all.
