Square Plays for 10/13 -10/15

Square Plays for 10/13 -10/15 1103 1H USC -1.5 (-115) 104 USC/CAL UNDER 58 Few bets are more square than playing this USC team as a road favorite on a Thursday night national TV game. I will be playing them on the game, but posting this first half play due to USC having some questionable second halfs this year. USC should be pumped up and motivated for this game and I like them coming off a bye week to prepare for Cal. In terms of the total; nobody looking at recent box scores would have any reason to believe this game does not get into the 70s. I know this one came up a bit right away, but surprised that really hasn't moved higher today. I am probably going to wait to see if it goes higher but still playing the UNDER at 58.

YTD 14-14 (3rd week posting. 10-9 first week, 2-5 second week, 2-0 so far this week) 1151 1H Michigan +1 151 Michigan OVER 47.5 I am still not sold that Michigan St is one of the top teams in the country. I do not think that their offense is very good and believe the defensive stats are just a reflection of who they have played. The one top offensive team they did play beat them handily. Feel like Michigan St will be forced to try and score with Michigan to stay in it and see Michigan starting fast and getting out to a lead. 146 Texas AM -8 I like the way Texas AM played against Tech after 2 meltdown games. Tech tried to rally, but really it was not as close as the 5 pt margin at the end (classic back door cover by Tech by the way). Texas AM is big and physical, the defense has taken a lot of criticism but part of the problem is how aggressive they are. I think they should be able to keep RG3000 in check. I am sure Baylor will be a popular "square" play at 8 but I think there is a reason the favorite has stayed at more than a TD favorite. I am also more likely to play a favorite at this number when it is initially bet up early in the week. I a saw 9 pop up early and then come back a couple times. Baylor definitively had their problems in their first road game against K St and now will be in one of the more difficult places to play and I think they could struggle even more. Look for Texas AM to play a complete game and cover easily. 125 S. Carolina -3 It looks like both these teams have decided on QB and think it will be a positive for both teams. Relf is not a good passer and the dissmissal of Garcia should help S.Carolina's stability and focus. Both teams most likely will try and rely heavily on the run game but I have more confidence in S.Carolina stopping Miss St. enough times to take control. Spurrier surely will have his team aware that they can control their own destiny in the SEC East, S. Carolina's playmakers will be the difference. 148 Tennessee +17 Without Bray this will be tough, but I think Simms will be able to run the offense effectively. Tenn gets to exercise the demons from last years loss they will be ready. I think I heard a stat before LSU covered last week that Les Miles was only 1-13 ATS as a double digit favorite in SEC play, not sure if that is accurate but going to reference that to support this play. Typically he does not run it up in conference and I am not sure that this team is built to. They seem to be a run the ball, defense orientated team that is content to squeeze out a win. I like Tenn getting more than 2 TD at home with a chance to get revenge on LSU for last year. Simms surely will be motivated to put on a good performance 181 S. Florida -7.5 USF has not played in forever, everybody has forgotten about them and how bad they looked against Pitt and they still are more than a TD Fav against a UCONN team that has offensive issues. With 16 days to prepare for a team that does not seem to have many offensive threats I like them to come out strong and cover this number that probably will get played more on the public side as a dog. 166 Kansas +36 Kansas just gave up 70 to OK ST. Ok just scored 55 against Texas. I have not heard anybody thinking that Kansas can cover this number, really I am not sure why I am putting money on Kansas. I think statistically they are the worst defense in FBS, did not look it up but they look like it. Maybe a let down game of Ok after Texas and before Texas AM. The classic weaker road opponent sandwiched between two bigger home games for Ok. I do not think Stoops will be motivated to try and embarrass Turner Gil and Kansas more than they were last week. Maybe the 2nds come in early for OK, maybe Kansas plays an inspired game at home to try and redeem their bad loss. That is a lot of maybes, complete contrarian play here. 174 Washington ST +21 I have lost more money betting this year betting against Stanford than any other single team. I am done saying I do not think they are a top team, they are good but eventually this team has to not cover; right? From what I hear then money on Stanford each week in Vegas is huge, surely every square like me will be laying they points on this team. Especially going against the little cougs, only 3 TD's "no problem". All this line does is hover around 20 to 21 all week, why is the Stanford money not moving the line? I am going to close my eyes and hope here. Good luck to all.

whatever happened with the south carolina point shaving thing? u said dismissal of garcia. i am behind with the news this weekend.

[QUOTE=johnelect;47183]whatever happened with the south carolina point shaving thing? u said dismissal of garcia. i am behind with the news this weekend.[/QUOTE] He broke his agreement to not drink or smoke pot during the season (he got in trouble for pot before). The details of the story were unclear on which one he was caught doing, but he is gone.

[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;47184]He broke his agreement to not drink or smoke pot during the season (he got in trouble for pot before). The details of the story were unclear on which one he was caught doing, but he is gone.[/QUOTE] I have just being hearing rumors on the point shaving thing, not sure that anything is solid on that. But I just may not know.

yeah, i was just wondering why garcia got suspended. SC not a good team with Garcia.. do not know who is backup but how can he be better? Just another smoker!!!! LOL

Garcia's backup played well last game. I imagine that made it a LOT easier to dismiss Garcia.

2146 2H Texas AM -2.5 (-115) 2125 2H S.Carolina -2.5 (-120) At minus 3 I would still play both, but I am finding 2.5 at square shops. I posted the second pick very close to the start of the second half, probably should not count it as a play.

Might want to revisit the point-shaving issue after today. Look at the coach.

What a horrible way to lose. There was no reason to even do that with only four seconds left. If they did not want to chance taking a knee (maybe the play gets blown dead before the time expires), the QB could have easily rolled out and thrown it out of bounds. Or punt it out of bounds. It was awful to watch that, right when they lined up for the fourth down I was like, Oh no please do not take the safety. But that's variance right, these things even out.