Square Plays for 10/25 - 10/29 YTD 21-28
Went 2-8 last week (ouch). Wish I could say I did better on the plays I did not post, but it was just a bad day. Looking to start the week of right with some Tuesday night Sun Belt action.
101 Troy +6.5
I like this play for a couple of reasons. First with it being the only football game on the board and little else to bet on, I am biased toward the dog. This will be Troy's first national TV game of the year and I believe this will be FIU's third. Troy should have the motivational edge as this is their first national TV spotlight. The public has gotten a chance to see and know this FIU team and remembers their upset win @Louisville earlier in the year. Those who have seen them probably also remember T.Y Hilton since ESPN raves about him each game he is on their network (he is good). This also makes me think that all the value is on Troy as the line could be inflated. I also believe that Troy has the advantage at the QB position; Troy went 8-5 last year with sophomore (?) Robinson and they rely heavily on his ability to throw the ball all over the field. Troy has had a rough start to the season (2-4) but if you look at the losses they were @Clemson, @Arkansas, @LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (a good Sun Belt team) and last against Louisiana-Monroe where they had some really bad turnovers and could not recover. I think they are a better team than what they showed so far and I think that this defensive unit full of Jrs and Seniors should play better. The coach for Troy has been around and he has always been one to challenge his team with difficult non-conference opponents on the road; he should more than have them ready for this critical conference game. I am seeing some +7 out there and I think that will be what it is by game time so it might be good to wait if you are thinking of playing Troy.
I was impressed when I looked at Troy's non-conference games since 2005. Only 1 season below 8 wins (2005).
Mizz '05
South Carolina '05
Florida St. '06
Georgia Tech '06
Nebraska '06
Arkansas '07
Georgia '07
Florida '07
Oklahoma ST '07
Ohio St '08
Oklahoma St '08
LSU '08
Florida '09
Arkansas '09
Oklahoma ST '10
South Carolina '10
Clemson '11
Arkansas '11
