Square Plays for 11/1 - 11/5

Square Plays for 11/1 - 11/5 Last week 13-9 YTD 35-38 356 Arkansas -5 Wanted to get this number before it gets closer to a full TD. Really like this spot for Arkansas. Arkansas the better offense and at home coming off two weeks where they were on the road and failed to cover big numbers. Arkansas last home game was October 5 and they should be ready for a tough game against South Carolina. Aside from his performance against Kentucky the South Carolina QB has not shown me enough to believe that he will be able to produce enough points in this game

301 N. Illinois +8.5 Going against the move here, this may be a spot to wait until game day if you think it goes higher. Initially I was surprised at this favorite being bet up so early considering that I thought public money may come in on N. Illinois but now I think that much of the public attention has fallen off this N. Illinois team. Toledo will probably get more public attention here playing a Tuesday night national TV game. Still a lot to play for both teams. N. Illinois can become tied for first in the MAC West with a win makes me think the 8.5 will be too much. N.Illinois can usually score plenty of points, but this year they have had a real tough time on the defensive side of the ball; I am looking for a more focused effort from them here. First non-Saturday game for N.Illinois as well as the first national TV game for them, surely the players are well aware of that and will come out focused. Toledo on the other hand already had a Friday night national TV game against Boise St as well as an ESPN game against Ohio St this year. The public very aware of Toledo by now. As far as personnel N.Illinois rely's heavily on the play of the QB Harnish. It is a little concerning to see how much of the offense he is responsible for; he is their leading rusher by a wide margin as well as passing for 1700 yards. As he goes the team will go, but he has been running this system for years now and I do think he moves the ball against this Toledo defense. I do not like the dual QB system that Toledo is running, but it has been working and both have been effective. I do think that in closer more evenly matched games or games where you fall behind, the 2 QB system can prove to be a disadvantage. Toledo's game against Bowling Green was a classic case where the 2 QB system was just not working. Neither got into rhythm or moved the ball effectively for the first half and they allowed Bowling Green to remain in the game. I think we could see them both press early if N.Illinois goes up by a couple of scores.

303 Temple -3.5 This one seems way too easy to me, and usually is the best way to spell loss. I am sure many of the Temple backers have given up on this team since they failed even win against Bowling Green two weeks ago as a double digit favorite. Temple has had two weeks to think about that game, where they played poorly and committed penalties. The offense struggled to get points even with two 100 yard rushers; I remember watching it and thinking it was a strange game. They will be looking forward to their first mid-week national TV game of the season; it is the first for Ohio as well. Looks certain that the RB Pierce will play even though he may not be quite 100%. The second RB for Temple has been getting more carries and he is good as well, they will probably have a 50/50 split in this game in terms of plays. Even though Temple really does not have much of a passing game I think the Ohio defense will struggle to get them off the field. Ohio giving up close to 7 3rd down conversions per game, and that is against mostly bottom tier offensive teams. Ohio currently ranks last or second to last in terms of strength of schedule in most rankings. The opponents they have played so far are a combined 25-42; which I know does not mean much but if you look into the offensive stats of the opponents it is really telling on how bad those teams are. I do not believe that Ohio will be able to stop the rushing attack of Temple from the 2 RBs and QB. The Temple game-plan does not ask the QB to do too much and I think as long as he does not turn it over, covering the 3.5 should never be in doubt. Temple competed with Penn St and that was when they were running a two QB system and the other QB gave the ball to Penn St a couple of times. The defense of Temple has impressed me this year, they are at the top of many defensive categories even though they did struggle against Toledo. In my opinion though Toledo's offense is much, much better than Ohio's with far more play makers. Temple was riding high before the loss to BG, beating their previous 2 opponents 42-0 and 34-0; had they not loss to BG two weeks ago I think surely we surely see closer to laying a TD here, if not more. Not that it means anything at all but those same two opponents scores against Ohio were losses for Ohio, 37-38 and 20-23. For me the favorite has all the value even at this number.

339 Kansas/Iowa St OVER 60.5 Going against the first move of the line as I believe this opened at 62. Two teams that really struggle defensively; although don't tell Texas Tech that as they were held to 7 points by the Cyclones. Both Iowa St and Kansas with not much to play for (Iowa St an outside chance at a bowl game but with their remaining schedule seems unlikely), Iowa St has made a QB switch that seems to have energized the team. I am not sure if it matters who plays QB against this Kansas team with probably one of the worst defensive lines in FBS; they do not get to the QB (near the bottom in getting sacks and completion percentage allowed) and give up 6.6 Yards per rush. I think the Kansas players should come out a little more motivated in this game as it really looks like their only chance of getting a win in the Big 12 and to do that they are probably going to have to try and score with Iowa St. Both offenses should go up and down the field in this game with not as much focus on the defensive side of the ball in a game that means little in the grand scheme. This Kansas team has not given up less than 42 points to an FBS school, I think that Iowa St should be good for about that number and the Kansas offense shows some life and gets at least 21 points after getting shutout last week. As of now no bad weather on the forecast for Saturday.

334 Wisconsin -25.5 A home game against Purdue may be just what Wisconsin needs to get the offense scoring points like they were early in the season. The line being 25.5 even after Wisconsin's last two games which they lost on the road is telling on just how out manned Purdue could be in this game. Surely public Wisconsin backers are not that eager to go laying almost 4 TD's on this team that over the last two games has not resembled what many thought they were. I am amazed that Purdue has been able to get to 4-4, especially with their coach making some very questionable QB decisions. Two weeks ago Purdue plays great and beats Illinois with Terbush playing the whole game (Marve was not hurt). Terbush then starts against Michigan and leads them to an opening drive TD. With the score now 7-7 Terbush takes a sack in the end zone and on the next drive the Purdue coach puts Marve in who promptly throws an interception. The Purdue QB situation is bad but I am convinced that the Purdue coach has made it worse. In my opinion Terbush is the better QB and he has been getting the majority of the snaps but the coach seems to be quick to take him out if the team falls behind or the offense is not being productive. Purdue also lacks in the running game as they have not had a RB run for 100+ yards since the first week of the year against Middle Tenn St. Ohio St game plan to beat Wisconsin was ideal; run the ball and stop the run. I am not a believer that Purdue will be able to do either of these. In fact Purdue has given up huge numbers to teams that committed to run the ball against them and I expect Wisconsin will try to exploit that against Purdue (Michigan 339, Penn St 185, Norte Dame 287 also the Illinois RB had 10 carries for 83 yards). Wisconsin's deficiencies on defense should not hurt them in this game this may be the wrong time of year to go and lay 25.5 in any situation but I like this spot for Wisconsin and obviously I think this Purdue team is really bad. Even with the back to back losses Wisconsin is still very much alive to play in the Big 10 champ game although they would need a little help; but I think Penn St will lose even before they play Wisconsin. With this game being a daytime ABC game look for Brett Bilema's team to make a statement to get the voters attention, we could see one of Wisconsin's 48-7 games here.

309 Tulsa/UCF OVER 48.5 I am betting that Tulsa will be able to dictate the pace of play in this one. Tulsa avg 74.8 plays per game for the year and 93 plays per game over their last 3 games. They play fast and they are also allowing their opponent 81.9 plays per game. UCF avg 71.7 plays per game but only allows 57.7 plays per game to their opponent. Tulsa's offense has been very efficient recently and I feel that UCF's defensive stats a little misleading just based on who they have played and the teams that spread them out and throw it a ton have had success against them. SMU 20/31 358 yards; UAB 31/42 327 yards; I think GJ Kinne will be able to do the same. He is an excellent QB and I do not think that the UCF defense are going to be able to limit the points enough to keep this game under. Tulsa and Kinne have already faced some very good teams, anything UCF shows them defensively they should be able to handle. I do like Tulsa to win this game, but I am just going to play the OVER because I think that if Tulsa loses UCF is going to have to put up at least 30 to 35 points to outscore TULSA. And with all the chances this Tulsa team will give UCF, UCF should be able to get enough points here.

306 Akron/Miami OH UNDER 48 This Akron team seems to really want to shorten the game and just do everything they can to not get blown out. They are going to have their hands full with Miami OH especially if the QB for Miami explodes like he did against Buffalo. One stat that I thought was interesting was that the RB for Akron who is probably their best offensive player has carried the ball 154 times. That is quite a lot of running plays when you consider how much time Akron has spent playing from behind this year, pretty much the majority of most of their games. Not sure if Akron can hold the Miami offense for long enough to stay in this, but either way we probably wont see many points from Akron.

314 Colorado +21 Colorado has had a rough year, but I think this spot warrants a play just because of the situation for USC. The last 3 games for USC have been @Cal, @Norte Dame, and Stanford. All 3 national TV games, Cal was a Thursday night game. USC has basically played their biggest games of the year and now have to go on the road and play a 1-8 Colorado on a Friday night after the triple overtime disappointing loss to Stanford. If USC comes out focused and determined to shut down this Colorado team I will be surprised. Everything points to the let down. Colorado has to be looking at this game as their biggest game of the year and chance for some redemption and give a good performance on National TV. First National TV game for Colorado, USC's fourth in as many weeks; advantage Colorado in my opinion. Colorado also should be getting back their best RB and WR for this game. They also should be getting a couple of players back in the secondary. They have not had them for the last couple of weeks and also lost their QB for the game against Oregon. Colorado's average margin of defeat over the last 4 weeks is almost 37 points, surely USC covers 3 TDs? Yet this line has dropped from the 21.5. Conversely USC looks as though they will be missing a couple of defensive players, although one is only a first half suspension. Additionally when did this USC team become such a powerhouse that they are a road 3 TD favorite to anyone? The only game they covered as a double digit favorite was home against Syracuse and they were only a 3 point road favorite against what many thought was a bad Cal team. This line has to be severely inflated due to USC recent performance and them being in the national spotlight. Now could USC sleepwalk through this game and win, probably. The may be even able to cover the 21 points and not play very well. There is not much hope that this Colorado defense can stop USC when you look at the yards that they have allowed this year. Colorado has had a brutal schedule and maybe the recent competition helps them against this USC team. Maybe the altitude, cold, and short week where USC had to just talk about the Stanford loss slows down USC. Colorado really should give USC everything it has on Friday night; I think we will see two teams with completely different energy levels.

3359 1Q LSU +.5 (-135) 1359 1H LSU +3 1362 1H Washington +10 362 Washington +16.5