Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs Alabama 259 Oklahoma 51.5
260 Alabama -17
"How do you respond?" That is what Nick Saban has been asking his team
during their preparation for this non-title BCS Bowl. How do they respond
after the improbable loss to Auburn where everything went wrong in those
final seconds to end the three-peat hopes of Saban and the Crimson Tide.
Now they face Oklahoma at the site of their 2011 21-0 thumping of LSU
in the BCS Championship game. Many expect more of the same here and
there is a good argument for that line of thinking.
In the last two seasons final game, with weeks to prepare, Alabama
basically put up a 56-0 result on the scoreboard. Winning 21-0 vs
LSU in 2011 and then last year going up 35-0 vs Notre Dame before starting
the celebration and easing up to an eventual 42-14 win.
Heisman runner-up AJ McCarron plays his last collegiate game and has come
up big in his previous Bowl games. Where many thought a start to finish ground
and pound approach would be the game plan, Saban has elected to come out
firing and build an early lead before handing things off to the ground game.
Two of McCarrons biggest games have come in the Bowls. Last year he completed
20 passes on 28 attempts (3rd highest for both for that season). In 2011 vs LSU
he was 23 of 34 (both season highs) and that was in a game they controlled from
start to finish. If you load things up front, Alabama will take what you give them.
Not sure how Oklahoma will approach things but in a spot I'd normally look to
have McCarron UN on comps and yards, think passing at anything less then 20
comps is the way to go and I'd have to catch a 17 to take the over
TJ Yeldon has been on a tear down the stretch. Carrying the ball 25, 24 and 26
times the last three games for 133, 160 and 141 yds, he has been rock solid
as the feature back. Expect nothing less then 20 carries for 100+ yds and at least 1 TD.
Yeldon has scored in 9 of 11 games this season and will be looking to bet YES
on a Yeldon TD at anything -300 or less. May pass on the 1H TD bets because
of the history Bama has of building a lead 1H and then grounding it out 2H.
No receiver stands out for Bama as a prop play unless they hang too optimistic
a line on Amari Cooper. Cooper has exceeded 65 yds rec just twice this season
yet an early peek at the line shows they will hang something like 67.5. That will be
tempting as will the UN 4.5 receps but the McCarron we see in Bowls has been
more pass prone then his norm so will wait and see how market reacts and then
maybe make a value bet late.
Although I do not like betting Overs on individual players, I do think they will post
too low a yardage number on OKL Senior RB Brennan Clay. Thinking here is he
gets about 20 carries and if so the number I see first posted of 48.5 yds looks light.
He has had 31 and 24 carries the last two games for 270 rush yds. Even at 3 ypc
and just 20 totes it seems he can get past 50 yds. Not crazy about betting him
over but if I find a line mid 40s will probably have to take some.
One thing that does look pretty solid, at least from a projection standpoint, is that
Alabama will receive the opening kickoff. In 2013 Bob Stoops has elected to defer
on all 7 of his coin toss wins. Nick Saban has elected to receive on 7 of his 8 coin
toss wins. The only defer was in game 1 vs Va Tech in a game played indoors.
His history of taking the ball was well known then so when he deferred in the
season opener it caught me with some Bama scores first bets that still ended
up winning but left me gun-shy going forward for the next month or so. Saban
then chose to receive the rest of the season so going to chalk that up to just
some kind of experiment or possible gamesmanship with Beemer (knowing he
likes to defer). I don't think he plays games here. Believe he will take the ball
and get on the board first so will look for some way to capitalize on that with
a bet on either Bama scores first or maybe some kind of 1Q bet. Just have to
wait and see what is available that correlates to Bama getting the ball first.
The biggest mismatch might be the punt unit for OKL vs the punt coverage
unit for Alabama. Sooners rank 112th in punting efficiency and go vs a return
team for the Crimson Tide that rank 9th. When Bama punts the ball they rank
#1 in the nation so, despite the meltdown on special teams vs Auburn, Bama
should hold a decided edge on special teams which should translate to superior
field position throughout the game. Have to believe an angry, embarrassed and
redemption-minded Tide rolls here and allows very few points to Oklahoma.
