Tex AM -27 or -22.5 ?

Tex AM -27 or -22.5 ? Right now at Treasure Island you can bet Tex AM -26.5 vs Rice on Saturday. That's the best line I see anywhere of the handfull of books in LV and offshore that have the game up. If he does not play due to a suspension deal with the* NCAA then you won't be happy with your number come kick off. If he does play, you should be looking pretty good. If you want to take the uncertainty out of* the equation, 5 Dimes is offering the following bets on the game: Rice at Texas A&M - Manziel must start game for action Sat 8/31 * 189*Rice * +27 -110 * * ** ** 1:00PM * 190*Texas A&M (Manziel must start) * -27 -110* * * ** ** Rice at Texas A&M - Manziel must NOT start game for action Sat 8/31 * 189*Rice * +22½ -110 * * ** ** 1:00PM * 190*Texas A&M (Manziel must NOT start) * -22½ -110* * * ** ** I think the 5Dimes option on bet #190 Tex AM -27 and* Manziel must start for action is the best option. Yesterday morning some news came out on two important defensive players for Rice who will be unavailable. They look to be serious losses on the defensive side for Rice and if Manziel is confirmed as starting* then that -27 may look real cheap in no time. "According to the Houston Chronicle, cornerback Phillip Gaines and linebacker Cameron* Nwosu will not play in the opener this Saturday against A&M for very different reasons. Gaines was slapped with a one-game suspension for, of course, violating unspecified team rules. Nwosu, on the other hand, will miss the game due to a knee injury incurred during summer camp. The loss of Gaines is particularly significant. Named the Conference USA Preseason Defensive Player of the Year, Gaines is coming off a season in which finished second nationally in pass breakups (18). Nwosu, a senior, has started the past 25 games at linebacker for the Owls. He finished second on the team last season with 92 tackles."

First, the implication that Manziel is worth only 4.5 points in this game seems WAY low to me. Maybe against a cupcake team it wouldn't matter once, but despite Rice not being an elite program, they're not a cupcake. If we can bet TAMU -26.5 with no conditions or TAMU -27 conditional that Manziel starts, that indicates to me that TI thinks Manziel is going to play. I believe, though, that the marketplace still has some uncertainty about this. My guess is that if/when it is announced that Manziel will start, that if books hang a -27 that we'll see steam on TAMU, probably taking it past the 28. That being the case, the conditional bet at 5 Dimes looks good to me, and depending on the line moves, some take back on Rice at game time might not be a bad idea, although, as frankb22 points out, Rice's defense, not stalwart in the best of circumstances, is especially suspect this time out.

Agree that he's worth more than 4.5 and that's why that conditional 27 looks like the way to go. If he plays, this game closes at or near 30. If he does not, it closes closer to 21 so he'll end up being worth 8-9 points in the line is best guess.

Manziel suspended for first half of game - took +27. Curious how far it drops for 1H of play.

Yeah, it's an interesting choice. I'm not sure how to handicap this, and I admit that my analysis really didn't allow for it. :-)