I like the way you think but the Nat Championship game has always
been one where you should scale down your volume some because
the season stats can be deceiving. Two reasons are:
With over a month to rest and prepare you can get much different
(higher variance) results from these players and the game plans
are very well-thought out and tend to focus on their strongest
players - more play time, targets, touches for the studs.
Many of the games played during the reg season were of the
blow out variety. Two teams that will have lost once or not at all
would have had several games where they had the luxury of
resting players and testing the depth of their roster. Unders can
look deceptively good in this case. This can also uncover some good
bets though, as in the case of players that played/produced mostly in
garbage time. In a title game they often put up props on many
of the secondary players and sometimes those guys will see
little of the field when the game is in question. Unders on those
players can be real strong.
I could not lay off McCarron UN either. Thought the line should be 15
and found 16.5 and 17 so bet it a couple times. Lost a couple of times.
Eifert I think you made a bad line on. He had been seeing increased
targets in Nov and was the receiver Golson had the most confidence
in. He had 6 receps in 3 of the last 4 games and in every game that was
not a blowout he had 4 or more receps. Throw in the fact that ND could
have been reasonably expected to trail in 2H so possibly more passing
and I made the line on him 4.7 so I bet that one over 4.
The tackles bet was the toughest to make a line on. I laid off that one
because I did not know why the drop off in tackle production in Nov
for him. Without snap counts to refer to, could not tell if he had been
getting extra rest or not in those games.
I lost some on this game too and had a bunch of bets push on the
FG kicking (no FGs in game) . Most years the BCS title bowl has been
a big letdown for me which is why I feel the need to do a post-mortem
on the game. Definitely a tough one every year.
