Thursday Plays Week 1 Thursday, Aug 30th
2 Team 6 Point Teaser
South Carolina -1 at Vanderbilt & Texas A&M -1 at La. Tech ($550 to win $500)
South Carolina -7 at Vanderbilt ($330 to win $300)
South Carolina opened as a GOY play at -10 and has now moved to -7 which I think now has some value. I'm leaning on SC for a smaller play right now but I'd rather go with the safe play on my big bet and tease it so that SC just needs to win the game.
Last year South Carolina won by 18 at home but that was without facing Jordan Rodgers at QB (he took over week 7) for Vandy, and with Stephen Garcia at QB and throwing 4 INTs (Shaw took over in week 6). Vanderbilt only had 77 total yards in the game last year and its deepest penetration in the final 3Q was the SC 44 yard line.
I'm on the fence because James Franklin has these guys playing great football especially at home. They covered ATS all 7 games at home last year and won 5 of 7 home games with its only losses to Arkansas by 3 and Georgia by 5.
Vanderbilt will be better offensively with Rodgers at QB but he still struggled with the pass (50% completion & 9-10 TD/INT ratio) was inconsistent struggling down the stretch and even got pulled in the bowl loss to Cincinnati.
Vanderbilt lost their four best players on defense. There are going to be some early growing pains when you lose your two best defensive backs, your best pass rusher, and the heart and soul of the defense in stud LB Chris Marve.
SC has covered 6 of its last 8 Thursday night games and with a top 5 defense that held Vandy to 4 rushing yards last year, a healthy Lattimore at RB, and the emergence of Shaw at QB I don't see how they lose this game and think they even cover the 7.
Texas A&M -7 at La. Tech ($220 to win $200)
The line opened A&M -11 and has since been bet down all way to -7 where there is now value on the play. A&M has won all 10 meetings vs La. Tech by an avg of 30 points including 2010's 32 point win. Sumlin is familiar with this La Tech team having played them last year while he was at Houston.
I don't think A&M loses this game so the teaser is the safer play for me but I do like them small to cover the spread vs La. Tech. Even though this game is in Louisiana it's in Shreveport not Ruston so expect the A&M fans to make the 4 hour drive for this game.
A&M scares me because of the disaster of a defensive backfield that Sonny Dykes will go to town on and the question marks surrounding the QB. I think Johnny Manziel is going to be fine for them. He was named starter because of the significant progress he made since the spring where he played recklessly. Like em or not Sumlin &
Kingsbury know how to run an offense and coach QBs so the offense that has a solid offensive line, playmakers at WR & RB will be just fine vs a non-SEC team like LA. Tech.
La Tech is getting a little too much play as the preseason favorites of the WAC conference which after the departure of Hawaii, Fresno St., and Nevada make it the worst conference in the country.
La Tech fielded its best defense in 20 years last season but had heavy losses to its front 7 seven. They lose their top 3 tacklers at LB and both DEs that produced 16sacks.
A&M wins a high scoring game by double digits.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser
UCLA -9.5 at Rice & South Carolina -1 at Vanderbilt ($550/$500)
UCLA -9.5 at Rice & Texas A&M -1 at La Tech ($550/$500)
3 Team 6 Point Teaser
UCLA -9.5 at Rice & Texas A&M -1 at La Tech & South Carolina -1 at Vanderbilt ($500 to win $900)
3 Team 10 Point Teaser
UCLA -6 at Rice & Texas A&M +3 at La Tech & South Carolina +3 at Vanderbilt ($600 to win $500)
3 Team Parlay
UCLA -15.5 at Rice & Texas A&M -7 at La. Tech & South Carolina -7 at Vanderbilt ($300 to win $1800)
UCLA -15.5 at Rice ($330 to win $300)
I'm scratching my head on this line as I see UCLA winning this by at least 3 TDs. The game opened at -14 but money came in quickly on UCLA and should raise even more as we get closer to game time.
Huge coaching advantage as UCLA brings in Jim Mora and his NFL experience while Rice's David Bailiff is probably on his way out after this season. Outside of a magical 10 win season in 2008 with Clement lighting it up to Dillard Rice has been, well Rice averaging around 3 wins a season.
The biggest mismatch of the game will be UCLA's front seven and deep DL (7 of its top 8 return) vs a Rice OL that ranks last in the country in returning starts among its OL (only 16 starts).
UCLA's former top QB recruit RS Freshman QB Brett Hundley was named the starter after outplaying both very experienced SR former rotating starting QBs Prince and Berhaut. He should eventually flourish in Mazzone's spread offense (was at ASU last year).
Rice offense was bad last year ranking 91st in the nation with only 5 returning starters, an inexperienced OL, a QB who's confidence is shot after being benched in the middle of the season, well they are going to struggle to move the ball vs a young but very talented UCLA defense.
Rice's defense is even worse ranking 111th and loses almost everyone up front on the DL. In total only 5 returns to the defense and not much talent there that wouldshow any signs of improving.
Bad matchup and UCLA should easily steamroll a bad Rice team that will be lucky to win 4 games this year.
