I do agree that UCF has been an over valued team this year, but I would not really agree with your statement that UAB has been competitive against good teams this year. UAB gets blown out by Florida and Tulane before being competitive and losing against ECU and Troy; 2 teams that are not very good this year. Yes they were leading Miss St 3-0 at the half but that was largely due to the horrific QB play for Miss St and the Miss St coaching staff having no confidence in Relf throwing the ball. The game turned when they switched QB in the second half.The UAB offense is horrible and I think they have an injury to their best RB. I know they have not been able to run the ball with him, and I expect without him it will be worse. UAB has not scored over 23 points in a game (ECU and Troy), and in both of those games they had a pick 6 from their defense. The only TD they scored against Tulane was a kickoff return. One of the TD against Troy was set up by a 91 yard punt return. The point is that this offense has struggled even more then the stats suggest. Also if you saw the game against ECU, the margin in that game could have/should have easily been much larger. ECU turned it over so many times in UAB territory and also fumbled in the end zone on their way to a possible TD. I had ECU in that game and it was painful to watch. I know it was only a 5 point margin, but it could have easily been 25. UAB's last game against Tulsa they were in the game at the half 24-20. In the second half after the RB went down I am pretty sure that the offense went 3 and out or turned it over on every possession. They did not have a first down in the second half. Tulsa's D is not good and certainly UCF's D is better. I am not sure how many points you can count on from this UAB team, near the bottom in most every offensive category. 16 could be too many, and I would normally always take the home double digit dog in these Thursday night games, but I can't back this UAB team. This game could end 20-0 UCF. Just my thoughts, hope it helps. Either way good luck to you, I would expect this game hits 17 before game time.
UAB averages 0.8 offensive TD per game. They are one of only two FBS teams to average below 1 offensive TD per game. The other is Kent st.
