Ellis Island 100K Contest - another Mission Impossible promo It's been a year or so since this annoying trend began. Casinos running
promotions where they are able to advertise big dollar amounts being given
away, when in actuality, it's just the POSSIBILITY of that amount being won.
Good example is the "August $1,000,000 Blackjack Challenge" taking place
at the Gold Coast this month. $1,000,000 sounds like something worth
playing for, but when you get the details you may come to the conclusion
that they could just as easily call it the "Once in 930 years we'll give away
$1,000,000 Blackjack Challenge".
On August 31 they will draw 10 names from all the players who've been accumulating
tickets (one ticket per hour of $5 blackjack play) in the prior 30 days. Those
10 players get to play one hand vs a 6 deck shoe. If they get dealt a blackjack
they get a second hand. If dealt a second blackjack they play a third and if that hand
is also a blackjack (third in a row) they win $1,000,000. Now they do give some
consolation money to those who get pulled but fail to get the three blackjacks in
a row, but the big lure is the $1,000,000. They are able to use that figure up front
in their ad because it's somehow possible to win that amount. How possible is it?
The probability of being dealt a blackjack on any specific hand is 4.75% which
is close enough to once every 21 hands to call it that. To get three in a row on
a six deck shoe would be once every 9300 attempts (actually a little tougher
due to effect of removal as the blackjacks occur with no replacement) or a pct
of 0.000107. With 10 players getting a shot at it, the odds of the Gold Coast
giving away the 1M is once in every 930 times they run this promotion. Since
it looks like a once a year deal, the over/under on when the Gold Coast might give
away the 1M is the year 2685. It would take running this promotion 672 times
before they have a slightly better than 50% chance of having to pay the 1M out
and it will occur, on average, once every 930 times they run the promotion overall.
If it sounds like your chances of taking down the big prize in this promotion
are slim-to-none, then when you look at the Ellis Island football contest you'll realize
that they asked slim to leave the room when they drew this up. There's zero chance of
winning the main prize here. It's a free to enter contest so they can offer anything they
want but c'mon now. This one is as close to impossible as they come.
Ellis Island advertises their contest as the "Win up to $100,000" Passport Pickem
Football Contest. $25k is guaranteed via drawings plus weekly and season long prizes.
The other $75,000 can only be won by picking at least 12 winners each week for all 17
weeks. I tried calculating the probability of doing this even though I knew going in that it
was pretty much impossible. With bye weeks shaving games off the schedule, the odds
are easily in the tens of millions to one. Not worth the headache and not worth even
considering the 75k as part of the prize pool. Ellis is actually shorting themselves
on this as they could safely offer 1M and have no risk of having to pay it out. If it
were my casino, I'd offer as much as I legally could and get all the publicity that would
result. 10 million plus one of my kidneys? Sure, and I'd sleep like a baby at night with
no concern for my bankroll or internal organs. You have no shot at the 75k here. Zero.
I'd be shocked if anyone was alive for this after week 4. I'd bet even money that no one
was alive after week 3.
The $100,000 Ellis Island Football Contest will pay out 25k in prize money. End of story.
