The D 22 is a push coupon

Does anyone have a link to any analysis on what this coupon is worth? Everything I have seen is for the dealer 22 as a push. Thanks.

Sorry, I don't have a link, but I can provide this.

If you like, you can adjust your strategy with this coupon to be more aggressive (hit 12 against a four, hit 17 against a ten, double down on 12) and it'll be worth slightly more than one betting unit.

But if you just stick to basic strategy and commit to playing until you hit to a hard 22, then it's worth exactly one betting unit.

That's what I do. Play $25 a hand using basic strategy until I hit a hard 22. I then walk away with $25 more than I otherwise would have via basic strategy alone. A fantastic coupon!

The coupon being worth one betting unit in and of itself is not enough to make it a good play. It depends on how good the D blackjack game is and how long it will take ( on average) to hit.

I don't think just waiting until you hit a 22 with basic strategy is the way to go. I think you have to hit 12 against anything. Also, you can't use the coupon if you double down or split.

17 v T is pretty easy to figure. 12 vs anything is pretty easy to figure ( I think). Tougher question is on 13-16 vs various dealer up cards.

Well, unless the game is incredibly atrocious (even money for blackjack, double 11 only, no splitting aces etc) I don't think you'll ever find conditions so awful that using the coupon wouldn't be an advantage play.

Busting with 22 comes pretty quickly, I think it'd be very unusual not to experience it at least once playing basic strategy after, say, 50 hands.

I realize I'm not providing any mathematical analysis here the you requested, just suggesting that this coupon should definitely be used, and that if you can fade the disadvantage that the game presents for 50 hands at $25 per, the coupon itself will be worth exactly $25.

Even a 1% house edge on 50 hands of $25 BJ is just $12.50.

for this coupon , do you lose if you hit 23 and above?

Yes, you have to end up with exactly 22 to push the hand (with the coupon) instead of losing your bet entirely as usual.

RecVPPlayer

Well, if the game is a 1% house edge and I have to play 50 hands to hit, I'm playing an hour or so of blackjack for a $12.50 EV with quite a bit of variance. I wouldn't say that is a must play. Just because a play has a positive EV doesn't make it an advantage play. There are a lot of positive plays that aren't really worth playing.

I found a site that has starting hand frequencies ( saves me the trouble of figuring them out). From that I can get a good estimate of what the coupon is worth. I think a 4% edge would make it a must play.

The house edge on the games at the D might be less than 1%. How you might be able to know what the house advantage is with the different deck and rule options among the different tables at The D would possibly involve getting an issue of "Current Blackjack News" by Stanford Wong.

Also, the Wizard Of Vegas website does have a Las Vegas Blackjack Survey, but I don't know how up to date that site is.

RecVPPlayer

I think that's PRECISELY how we define advantage play.

Now, you may not find it advantageous enough to chase. I get that. You won't see me heading up to the Lucky Club to chase a $5 match play.

But since I'm usually a downtowner, I will play the D's 22 push coupon every chance I get, it's more than good enough for me.

Ok, I think we are getting caught up in semantics a little bit. If there is a roulette game that pays 60,000 to 1 on a bet that the same individual number will hit 3 times in a row, I don't think I am going to play it. I am over a 9% favorite but the variance is huge.

We seem to different on the definition of advantage play vs play with a positive expectation.