Downtown Grand LVA matchplay certain win

The matchplay can be used in conjuction with a bet from $5 to $50. So, to guarantee a win:

1. Bet $75 on the Pass Line.

2. At the same time (come-out roll), bet $50 with the matchplay coupon.

3. Bet $3 on Twelve.

If the shooter makes a pass (win), then you will get a $22 profit. If the shooter doesn't make a pass (loss), you will still realize the same $22 profit. Exception: if the shooter rolls a Twelve on the comeout, you will make a $15 profit, and your Don't Pass bet and the coupon will stay intact, so you can replace your Pass Line bet (a comeout Twelve would actually be the best outcome for you).

I've done this by myself dozens of times in various casinos, and only once was I ever told that I couldn't bet both the Pass and Don't Pass at the same time. I asked, "Why on earth not?" and the nimrod numbnuts pit creature in an ill-fitting suit couldn't say ("You just can't."). So fine, I handed the Pass Line chips to my friend and told him to bet them for me. I was waiting for Pitter Critter to tell me that you couldn't bet the Don't Pass if your friend was betting the Pass Line. Or your spouse. Or your child. Or your dog. (This was at the old Sahara, before it died a well-deserved and timely death.)

You of course would realize a slightly better EV (+$24, approximately) just betting $50 with the coupon and let the chips fall where they may, but I have this psychological aversion to losing in the process of taking advantage of a promotion (I lose, and then say "I never would have bet that $%#%@ $50 without the ^&*%$ coupon.").

What about a 2 or 3 crap?

You would win the Don't Pass bet, while losing the Pass bet and the 12 bet, for a net profit of $22.

Kevin,

I re read your instructions, but i seem to have missed what you were putting on the DON'T PASS bet. I guess i'm not getting it

Oops! Yes, you bet $50 on the Don't with the coupon and $75 on the Pass. That way, either outcome nets you $25 (minus the $3 "insurance" bet on the 12).

Sorry about the confusion.

In this world, to each his own.

I get this arbitrage approach, I've made bank doing it signing up for online sportsbooks.

But I find it miserable in person for low stakes at a dice game. And it generates a lot of eyerolls.

I recommend playing the coupon straight. Live a (very) little!

I'm used to eyerolls. For instance, I have A7 at the blackjack table, the dealer is showing a 10, I hit. And get astonished looks.

I'm an anti-gambler. I HATE gambling. There's no thrill in it at all for me. For me, the pleasure is in turning a risk into a certain positive return. And as far as low stakes are concerned...for me, a $50 bet isn't low stakes. That coupon is worth $24 (roughly). So if I could, I'd turn it in to the cage for $24 cash and not go near the crap table.

My general philosophical approach is boring but effective. But I take the money I make and pay for something non-boring. Gambling can be fun...but gamblers lose.

"I'm an anti-gambler. I HATE gambling."

-Kevin Lewis

Doesn't look that way.

You claim to want to maximize your winnings.

That's not what you're doing, though.

You're gambling.

What you really value is avoiding a short-term loss.

And you're willing to needlessly pay for it.

Look:

Your expected loss on that pass line bet is $0.71.

Your expected win on the don't pass is $23.59.

Your expected loss on the twelve is $0.50

For a net expectation of a $22.38 win.

But if you just bet the $50 and the coupon on the don't pass, your expected win increases to $23.59.

Your strategy is hurting your bottom line.

Here, it's costing you $1.21 every time you do it, versus just making the single bet on the don't pass line.

You're gambling, and apparently like it.

Which of course is fine.

I'm well aware of all that. What I'm actually doing, though, is buying insurance. And ALL insurance is -EV. So are hedge bets. 

Agreed.