The D guests can utilize Circa pool

I'm getting marketing emails from the D saying their guests can use the Stadum Swim pool at Circa.   I dont know if that is a promotion or the standing policy.

Seems like a good deal but maybe just a long way to walk in your flip flops and beach towel.

It smacks of desperation.

I mean, think about it---some of the rationalization for the insane prices Circa charges--for everything!--is the exclusivity you supposedly enjoy in return for paying those prices. Kinda dilutes the whole experience, so to speak, if you have to share the Fancy Pool with all those less-than-$100-a-night-paying riffraff from the D, right? Plus, if you come to Vegas because you're lusting after a pool experience, doesn't allowing D guests in the pool cut into Circa's market?

I doubt that Circa will last until the end of the year. I don't know the exact numbers, but I'm sure they're deeply in hock and were relying on huge rivers of immediate revenue to service that debt. But the novelty value of Circa is already fading, and there simply won't be that many people who are willing to pay $200 a night to stay downtown.

When I visited in January,  it was really a neat property. Most people in the casino were walking around and just checking it out. Very few gamblers. Was a weekday, all table minimums were $15. Video poker pay schedules were all bad. It will be interesting to see how long they stay like that. I imagine they will eventually have to change

Anybody know - not just a guess, but informed opinion - whether the Stevens brothers have made Golden Gate and the D profitable? I realize Circa is a different game, but if they turned those properties around, maybe they can make this one a success. I was really hoping Circa would make a go of it and drive down prices at Golden Nugget. 

It's very hard to tell, because those properties are privately owned and their financial statements are not a matter of public record. Derek Stevens operates the casinos in the aggregate as an LLC.

I can't provide you with a direct source, but I remember reading that the LLC (all three casinos, together) was expected to return 3-5% ROI once Circa got up and running. However, that was expected to be swallowed up by debt service for the foreseeable future. Stevens went deep into hock to build Circa. The D and Golden Gate neither produced enough revenue nor were valuable enough assets to provide collateral all by themselves.

Stevens wanted to use the "Stations model" for expansion---buy one property with debt, immediately mortgage that property to the hilt, then buy yet another property, lather, rinse, repeat. Stations used that model quite successfully in the 2000s to build a nationwide casino empire. Then came the Dubya recession.

I think that's what may be behind the sky-high prices at Circa. Stevens needs cash flow NOW., but Covid has cut into his projected revenue. He's eating the seed corn, as they say, by driving away customers (who will NOT return after the novelty value wears off) with his gouging. More cash flow in the short term--business death in the medium term.

I predict that Circa will crater, and possibly even be sold or shut down, within the year. That probably won't make rooms at the GN any cheaper. One thing you might see, though, is Circa having a fire sale (in relative terms) and rolling out the bargains (in relative terms).

My opinion from my visit in January.  Nice place.  Trying to stay exclusive with fees to enter pool or reserve a table at the sports book.  I think I'm OK with that because the places are special.   Table minimums way to high.  I think that will change because business is down and Vegas is stil recovering from Covid19.  Restaurants have competion downtown and people are willing to pay for quality if the quality is indeed superior (i.e. Triple George).

In the end, the free market determines who wins and loses.  If Circa is not competative, they will lose.  I see the D already going in that direction with higher table limits than the value delivered.  In the meantime, I go where I receive a product with the quality I need for the price I am willing to pay.  That means El Cortez is still where I gamble most often downtown.....but I try not to eat there.

I read in the LVA that the pools are closed per government order.  However, the D offers state you can use the Circa Pool.  Is it true that it is closed or are they just restricting the number of people?  Thank you.

Kevin, I'm confident that Stevens did not begin any business with a goal of 3-5% ROI.  No one would be silly enough to risk money for such a meager return.  Over the past 15 years, the Venetian had an average ROI of about 10%...........including a few years with negative ROI, and some years with over 20% ROI.  

That might have been true in the past, when simply putting one's money into debt instruments would produce a virtually risk-free 3-5% ROI, but with interest rates so low now, it's hard to get there except via real estate/business investment.

Of course, inflation has a lot to do with how acceptable a low ROI is. If inflation is high, you need a high ROI just to tread water. But now, it's pretty low.