137th Kentucky Derby No. 14 Shackleford M/L 12-1 Current Line 19-1
Shackleford comes out of the best Derby prep race this year, the Florida Derby, where Dialed In ran down the 68-1 longshot at the wire winning by a head.
If you watched the coverage of the Florida Derby, Dialed In's trainer Nick Zito kept saying over and over that Gulfstream Park favors speed and that speed was holding up all day. Not entirely true. Only one horse went wire to wire that day, there were several closers that won, but most were stalkers.
Shackleford cut all the fractions in the Florida Derby and is not being given much credit for doing so...AND he battled speed rabbit Arch Traveler early and then To Honor and Serve....46.1 and 110.3 after 6f, they were just cooking on the front end. No wonder Dialed In looked so fast closing for home. These two horses opened up on the field through the stretch and beat all others by seven lengths including favorite Soldat by 10 lengths.
The nay-sayers are bashing his pedigree, but watch the Florida Derby, he gallops out better and farther than Dialed In.
With at least 5 early speed horses I think Shackleford will try and be just behind them and/or if the pace is slow he can easily rate up front. Conversely, there are SEVEN good looking closers that are in the Kentucky Derby that ALL WON their last race and with 19 horses in the field, it could be a demolition derby turning for home. Perhaps Shackleford may have a big advantage this time near the lead.
His five furlong bullet-workout last Sat of 58.4B is off the charts and tells us he is ready and a potential improving colt, which is what handicapping the Kentucky Derby is all about, peaking on the first Saturday in May. There is a 60% of rain in the forecast and if the track comes up muddy or sloppy, I like our chances that much more. We are betting him across the board, no exotics.
