Burger my friend, good discussion.
Too many bettors and handicappers have become enamoured with betting underdogs IMO. The real hidden value is with the favorites. We've seen web sites spring up like Take the Points.net preaching if you are betting chalk you are the same as the public. Then you have the contrarians that love to fade the touts and line moves. I have many friends that bet nothing but dogs for 15-20 years, and they will tell when there are points involved that there 2 ways to lose with the favorite blah blah, and don't lay a money line bet over -125.
NONE of them make a living year after year betting sports, they are break even at best and yet they still chase the dogs, and they don't have the bankroll to lay it when needed.
In golf matchups, I realized years ago that I was wasting my time trying to make a line on a golfer or a matchup. The winner of a golf matchup is not determined by it's betting value. The matchup itself is the key and combined with a ceiling parameter is what I look for.
Like this week JB Holmes over Allenby, after handicapping this matchup, IMO it was a slam dunk, Allenby could not hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat. I would have laid up to -180, he should have been -200 or more. And in golf more so than just about any sport, over 4 days and 72 holes the CREAM rises to the top.
As you know from last year the main problem is posting matchups that I think you guys can get to. After I bet them, a matchup that was +105 is now -130 or -140. Golf matchup limits are very low, it doesn't take much to move a matchup 30-40 cents. My accounts are flagged, tracked and moved again on air by several sportsbooks, and then and only then will post them if I think there is still some value left. Sure, sometimes the line goes the other way like last week when we bet against Tiger, you guys got a better price than I did, but not often.
