Academy Awards

Academy Awards A friend who knows his movies and how the Oscars work says that "Tree of Life" is a good Best Picture value at +3300. This is literally all I know, but if any of my outs were booking Oscar bets I'd be on it.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;48753]A friend who knows his movies and how the Oscars work says that "Tree of Life" is a good Best Picture value at +3300. This is literally all I know, but if any of my outs were booking Oscar bets I'd be on it.[/QUOTE] Thanks- any other info from your friend on the Oscars?

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;48753]A friend who knows his movies and how the Oscars work says that "Tree of Life" is a good Best Picture value at +3300. This is literally all I know, but if any of my outs were booking Oscar bets I'd be on it.[/QUOTE] One of my outs had +7000. Hope it makes a difference. Thanks.

Tree of Life would be shocker of epic proportions - The Help is a much better long shot, particularly if you can get +2000. It won the SAG award, which includes a portion of the academy voters.

If someone can give a link to odds, I can see what else he has to say. None of either of our outs have them up yet.

Got it at 104:1 on Betfair. If 33:1 is good value, I guess 104:1 should be OK ;-)

I sent him the Betfair odds. Here's what he says: There are some long shots that are worth a bet: Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy at 85:1 -- Sure, it was an honor just to be nominated, but if there's going to be an upset in this category, it's likely to be her. I'd say there's a 10% chance of this happening, so there's the overlay. Costume Design: I really don't think Hugo will win this. This one tends to go to period costume dramas. It's been 8 years since it went for a movie that was in the Best Picture discussion. It doesn't usually matter if the movie is even considered "good." Jane Eyre is the safest bet, but Anonymous is a pretty interesting long shot. Sound Editing: this goes to a big, loud, big budget movie. I like Transformers in this category which has the longest odds. Original Screenplay: Woody Allen should win this award, but people in the academy don't necessarily care for him because he never shows up. This makes this category have some value in A Separation. A shoe-in for Best Foreign Language Film, I like it at 11:1. Another good long shot is Bridesmaids again at 40:1. Some people might want to make a statement here by voting for the "women write comedy" choice. The short odds sure things this year are Original Song for Man or Muppet, A Separation for Foreign Language Film, and Rango for Animated Feature. Any other movie winning either of these categories would be a big surprise. Analysis on shorts coming after I actually see them next week.