American Idol Thoughts.....

American Idol Thoughts..... I will keep this thread updated week by week as the season runs along if anyone is interested. I've been pretty damn good at predicting who at least has a shot in hell of winning the damn show after watching the 24 finalists perform. I even picked David Cook to win the show in season 7 after the first night. So after reviewing all the finalists (boys and girls) and using the current Pinny lines on odds to win here is who I list as having a somewhat realistic chance of winning the show. If I don't have them listed it means that they have NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER to win the competition. Again this isn't based on my opinions of who the most talented is....it is based on who realistically could get the votes as the competition winds down in order to win the whole thing. Lots of variables to take into consideration here and remember to check dialidol.com as they predict the order of eliminated contestants at a 97% clip over the past few seasons. Girls: Janell Wheeler +1530 Lilly Scott +1326 Katelyn Epperly +4380 Michelle Delamor +1776 Crystal Bowersox +612 Katie Stevens +5.62 Boys: Jose Munoz +14195 *Lee Dewyze* +1441 Alex Lambert +3568 Casey James +461 Andrew Garcia +498 First impressions on girls: Wheeler is my dark-horse girl to get into top 3 and then who knows what happens from there. Live performances and Simons' reviews are historically very important once the final 3 is decided. Cook wasn't suppose to beat Archuleta and Kris Allen was supposed to get killed by Adam Lambert last year. Once they got down to winning time Simon's choice sways the public much more than the average viewer realizes. I think Wheeler is attractive enough and has a sultry enough voice to stick around for a while and then it is just can she improve week after week to build momentum and give herself a chance late? I think she is worthy of a small wager at these odds. Scott: While one of the most talented I don't think she will be able to overcome her punk looking image. Ultimately the teeny boppers decide the winners and I don't see her getting the votes late although she is very very good. Epperly: I love this girl and think she has the image, personality, and voice control to go a long way. The outrageous odds scare me and dialidol has her listed as one of the lowest vote getters. She chose a terrible song and a horrific outfit in week 1. If she makes out of this cut tonight (which she may not) she could turn the corner quickly as the judges all seemed to like her. Delamor: Nice odds. She is mature enough and "current" enough to do well. Not sure she has the chops to pull off the outright win but she is a similiar contestant to what Kelly Clarkson was in year 1...although a little older. Can she win the 13-17 year old votes late? Bowersox: Probably the most talented on the entire show. Unfortunately for her, she has George Washington wooden teeth and there is absolutely no way she can win when she gets down to a vote off between her and 3 early 20's heartthrobs. Stevens: Terrible price but she did receive the most votes in the round of 12 girls according to dialidol. She has all the makings of an american idol winner. Teenager that is attractive and has a big voice. She will have to really screw up not to make the final 5. The price is just not enough to warrant a play here IMO. Boys: Munoz: Not a great look but has a huge voice and can really surprise you with his range. Outrageous odds warrant a look simply because the judges really seem to like him. He could pick up a very large hispanic vote but will it be enough to carry him for a while? He was possibly one of the lowest vote getters for the boys in week 1 but I have a sneaking suspicion he gets through tonight. A very longshot and he would have to pick the perfect song almost every single week but at 142-1 it may be worth a very small wager that he slips into the top 5. If that happens you have all kinds of hedge options to make big money. Dewyze: My personal pick the win the competition. He has the look, the demeanor, and the sound that idol boys have historically done well with. He seems like a real nice guy and he has a very soulful voice. Plus the most important aspect is that he seems to be Simon's favorite and that is worth its weight in gold when it comes to doing well in the competition. People really underestimate Simon's influence. I will be making a decent wager at 14.1 to 1. I will be shocked if he doesn't make the top 5 thus giving himself a realistic shot at winning. Lambert: Can he come out of his stage fright and learn to perform comfortably? He has a nice gimmick in the mullet and he is the right age to get the young votes. Also he has a great hip voice and great odds to make a play here. The problem is I just don't think he is ready as a performer and Simon is going to eventually get tired of him and rip him to shreds. I like the odds but think it is throwing money away. James: No doubt the guy will make the final 3-5. But his odds are so poor at 4.6 to 1 that it just isn't worth it here. While he is not going to have trouble getting any votes merely because of his looks he is also a very solid singer. The one thing I find to nitpick is that I don't think he has a huge range thus leaving him with simple songs to use and at some point that will start to become a subject of conversation with the judges. With that being said I wouldn't be surprised whatsover if he were to win the competition but I will not be making a play on him at this price. Garcia: Terrible odds for a guy that didn't really show his best stuff after round 1. I was shocked to see his having the most projected votes among the boys according to dialidol. Maybe it is the strong West Coast following that is pushing him early (he is a native California boy I believe) or it could be that people truly like his talent. He is a very good singer and I think he will get better the longer he is on the show. In the end I don't see him having the overall package to win the votes when it gets down to 5 or less and because of that I would never make a play on him at these odds. My wagers: Janell Wheeler (Small) 15.3 to 1 Lee Dewyze (Big) 14.41 to 1 Katelyn Epperly (Very Small) 43.8 to 1 Predicted Top 3 after round of 24: Meaning who I think will be in final 3 as of now and in no particular order. I will update this after each round as well. Casey James-Lee Dewyze-Katie Stevens Good Luck

I copyedit this blogger: [url]https://new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/realityrocks/320119/the-american-idol-top-24-part-2-the-boys-of-bummer/[/url] She has a pretty good eye for these things, so if you want another opinion, burg, this is one to consider.

My wife stiffed me! I picked Carrie Underwood. The key here is I was not watching the TV. Only heard her 60 second try out. Told wife you just heard the winner. The "bet" was if I was correct we would never have to watch the show again. If wrong I had to sit through the garbage. I won! and still lost. She just laughs at me now every time the karoke show comes on.

[QUOTE=members;17672]I picked Carrie Underwood. The key here is I was not watching the TV. Only heard her 60 second try out. Told wife you just heard the winner. The "bet" was if I was correct we would never have to watch the show again. If wrong I had to sit through the garbage. I won! and still lost. She just laughs at me now every time the karoke show comes on.[/QUOTE] I always find it funny that people call it the Karaoke show. While true you have to weed out several jokers look at some of the worldwide talent that the show has produced: Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood have both become multi grammy winners and even some non winners like Chris Daughtry and Clay Aiken have both went on to very famous and lucrative careers.

Hey burg, Winning a grammy and being famous does not equate to talent. Just saying...

I took winner to be MALE at +149. Too much being made of Simon's comments "I think a girl wins it this year" before the groups hit the stage. I think the top guys of James and Garcia look just as strong if not stronger than Bowersox, Stevens. Personally, I think they should be faves here... but my Idol eye might be off, as I haven't watched it the last two seasons.

When Simon leaves [QUOTE=burger;17674]I always find it funny that people call it the Karaoke show. While true you have to weed out several jokers look at some of the worldwide talent that the show has produced: Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood have both become multi grammy winners and even some non winners like Chris Daughtry and Clay Aiken have both went on to very famous and lucrative careers.[/QUOTE] If they do not get Howard show is doomed.

[QUOTE=members;17678]If they do not get Howard show is doomed.[/QUOTE] I agree with that. You can only do star search for so many years before you have to let some youngsters grow up to fill the void. Simon hinting he may come back now but if not I'm sure his new show will take over the Idol top position as I'm sure he will add Paula to the panel and away they go....

I don't know if she is bringing in viewers, but Ellen is brutal as a judge. Random ass rambling comments. And if she was first to critique, the other judges seemed afraid to go against her.

[QUOTE=Twoniner;17681]I don't know if she is bringing in viewers, but Ellen is brutal as a judge. Random ass rambling comments. And if she was first to critique, the other judges seemed afraid to go against her.[/QUOTE] Totally agree. I think Victoria Beckham would have been a natural fit. She was amazing during the locational tryouts and I thought she meshed really well with all of the other judges. Of course Ellen was already chosen by then.