Andre Ward vs Allan Green (6/19) Another Super 6 fight is taking place this weekend in Oakland. Allan Green substitutes for Jermaine Taylor who dropped out of the tournament. Andre Ward is a huge favorite in the fight and I find it a bit odd. Using the common opponent method on analysis, many will come to the conclusion that Ward is far superior to Green and he may well be. They both fought Edison Miranda. Green lost to Miranda in 07 and Ward beat him in 09. I think this method for this fight is a bit flawed. Miranda was a much faster fighter in 07 and had a TON more confidence then. He really has faded and while he's always been a one handed fighter, he's been much more easily exposed of late. Miranda took a beating from Pavlik and Abraham between fighting Green and Ward. So thinking that Miranda was the same fighter is a mistake.
Ward's best win is against Kessler but he had a significant hand speed advantage in that fight and I'd rate Green's hand speed equal to Ward's.
Now I don't want to jump out and say I'm certain that Green is going to win this fight. I actually doubt he will but the line of -650 for Ward is a joke.
The one outcome we can likely eliminated is Green winning by decision. This fight is in Ward's hometown and he's likely the better boxer but Green has more power.
The line continues to get worse on many European sites. Many have Ward -700 or -800.
I think that the play might be, and it is risky, to take Ward by decision and Green by KO. Losing both in Ward gets the KO or I suppose Green gets the decision. As much as I dislike OVER/UNDER bets in boxing probably need to toss in an over bet to cover a late TKO by ward. I'll see if I can make the numbers work when the odds are posted.
We will probably be able to get Green at +600 for the KO and Ward -120 for the decision. Once the books add the fight, I will attempt to structure the bet to where we break even if Ward wins by decision and we make a bunch if Green gets the KO. The over covering the late KO by ward. Risky plays but nothing as risky as take Ward at those numbers.
I've heard that Green's chin may be suspect but I can only find one fight where he was knocked down and that was the Miranda fight. One thing Miranda certainly had a few years ago was a monster right hand. At the time of the Green fight Miranda was 27-1 with 24 KO's.
I'm way against the grain on this fight. I personally think Ward fights small and is over rated.
I'll post any bets closer to fight time.
