Anyone interested in talking personal wagering unit sizing process/money management

Anyone interested in talking personal wagering unit sizing process/money management I did a search in this forum and found nothing on this subject thus far. I would really think it would be beneficial for the entire board to hear different strategies from whoever would like to chime in. PLEASE CAN WE JUST LET BYGONES BE BYGONES AND LEAVE PERSONAL LIKES OR DISLIKES OUT OF THIS THREAD. I apologize to anyone that I have offended in advance and forgive all those that I feel have offended me. With the MLB regular season up on us I would love to hear how others plan on optimizing their wagering. Kelly, Stoffo, Wong, Martingale (gulp), or any other ideology being used? If Kelly are most using 1/4 or 1/2 and are you re-adjusting your BR per day, week, or month? Flat bettors are you using the same unit size each day for the entire season or are you re-adjusting unit size for day, week, or month? If Kelly are you assessing your perceived edge based on a capper/tout/your own historic win rate or using a flat 53%-55%? Anyone out there have their own system or technique? Don't want to leave anyone out here but I think the forum as a whole would really benefit if Fezzik/Alf/Anthony/Shooter/RealWorldSports/BLeonard/TimPatterson/The Dude/Skeltrfan/LEL/CharlieJ/Joelshitshow/Rick J/Members/The Shrink/Custer/Jakenhl/Climate/Roughrider39/Coolmil and many more would chime in. I know I'm forgetting some of you so I apologize in advance for that. I was planning on flat betting this upcoming season and re-adjusting my MLB regular season BR unit size per day but I am now thinking of using 1/2 Kelly.... Lets discuss this please...

Personally I use a combination of different methods depending on what wagers I am placing. I normally flat bet when following cappers (RAS, ALF golf) or personal spot plays. As I have mentioned before I do play alot of systems, which include some chasing. I have never used martingale for an extended period of time, too risky long term. I have good success with a 3-line progressive labourchere method on MLB chase systems. Encountering multiple losses and still showing a nice profit. If I were using martingale it would have been a bankroll crusher and probably would not have recovered. I have also used a somewhat modified labourchere and martingale system... Kind of hybrid method that a friend that is part of one my private groups developped and was very good in NHL with the higher juice on pucklines. I know most here do not use chase systems as most people say they are not +ev etc... I really do believe with correct money management they can be profitable long term. The key is to have REALISTIC base units that will not make you balk when you have to lay down a big amount on a deep chase or when a loss occurs.

Chase systems work more than 90% of the time. You're going to have a stretch where you drop 10-15 in a row, and I suppose if your bet size is small enough, it's going to take a once-in-a-lifetime streak to go bust. But what do you do then? That's a very high-and-mighty way to say it; it's not my intention to be pretentious. Let's not ever forget my 5-unit 49er/Lion bet in which the line beat me by two points and I could have pushed if I had waited. I generally bet 2% of my bankroll on every bet. Chalk means I bet to win 2%. Otherwise I bet 2% on a dog. I don't reassess my bankroll every day/week/month, but if I ever see my bankroll cut in half or double in size, I will then declare a new average bet size. It's overly simplistic, but it's good enough for me. Discipline is the most important aspect, of course. I got hammered during the opening round of March Madness, and I really wanted to double up in the second round so I wouldn't have to pay the man, but that's not the right reason to bet more. Again, a little ivory tower here, and I apologize for that.

For the most part, I grind out flat units. Will step it up on an advantageous play. If you can grade your plays and say this is an 80% play or 60% bet, and wager accordingly and your percentage projections are correct it can be more successful than Kelly. I have come to believe that underdogs are too frequently bet by all "sharp squares" and the linesmakers are shading the numbers that way these days especially in the NCAA Tournament. But the key I believe to winning in the long run in sports betting, is your bankroll. It pays to have at least 100 bullets to fire, you'll survive any losing streak and be able to play a system through an entire season.

[QUOTE=Alf M;20013]For the most part, I grind out flat units. Will step it up on an advantegous play. If you can grade your plays and say this is an 80% play or 60% bet, and wager accordingly and your percentage projections are correct it can be more successfull than Kelly. I have come to believe that underdogs are too frequently bet by all "sharp squares" and the linesmakers are shading the numbers that way these days especially in the NCAA Tournament. But the key I believe to winning in the long run in sports betting, is your bankroll. It pays to have at least 100 bullets to fire, you'll survive any losing streak and be able to play a system through an entire season.[/QUOTE] When you "grind out flat units", do you readjust your BR any? What I mean is that do you adjust your flat unit size as your BR decreases or increases per day, week, or month? Thanks Alf

[QUOTE=Alf M;20013] If you can grade your plays and say this is an 80% play or 60% bet, and wager accordingly and your percentage projections are correct it can be more successfull than Kelly. [/QUOTE] I don't understand your comment. Kelly bettors should be betting more on bigger edges and less on smaller edges. Did you mean to say that being able to accurately determine which plays have a bigger edge and betting accordingly is better than FLAT BETTING?

Yes it is better than flatting betting, but very difficult to gage. Of course you want more on games where you think you have a bigger edge. But those games for me are less than 10% of my plays, everything else is flat betting. I adjust my flat bets after + or - 15 units and as we know you can be inside those 15 units for a whole season. Fezzik is the guy you want to pick his brain on this subject, he has a vast array of money management skills. Steve you there?

Along the same lines, if anyone has thoughts about bet sizing during live betting, I'd like to hear it. I often go above Kelly early in a game because of the high likehood of betting the other size later on. I don't have any hard and fast rules, though. I've love to hear some. Am I making a misake by going above Kelly at all?

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;19991]Chase systems work more than 90% of the time. You're going to have a stretch where you drop 10-15 in a row, and I suppose if your bet size is small enough, it's going to take a once-in-a-lifetime streak to go bust. But what do you do then? That's a very high-and-mighty way to say it; it's not my intention to be pretentious. Let's not ever forget my 5-unit 49er/Lion bet in which the line beat me by two points and I could have pushed if I had waited. [/QUOTE] I know most dont like this style of wagering, but it works for me and probably accounts for upwards of 75-80% of yearly profit. I had a stretch last year in MLB that cost me nearly 200-250+units in 7days... It took me approximately 10-12days afterwards to make it back and be back in the profits. Like I said its not for many people, but it is very successful if done correctly. mags

Bet proportional to your edge When RAS releases a total, AND you can get down on the release number, the ideal bet size would likely be 20% of bankroll, as it is a virtual certainty you could play back a sizable amount as a profitable middle, something like 15% back, and then let 5% ride. Personally, I cap my max bets at around 4-5% of bankroll, and those are very rare. Most bets 1-2% of it.