Australian Open Round of 16

Australian Open Round of 16 We have a more experienced tennis bettor on the board here for sure but I recall a few years ago when I joined the board I wrote down a bet here on Milos Raonic to beat someone at +200 odds to win a small time tournament in San Jose. Since then Milos has climbed the rankings pretty steadily to reach the top 20 of the world. He will play Roger Federer tomorrow and he's played and lost to Roger 3 times in his career is what I've read. However, he's gotten Roger to go the distance in every of his matches against him. Milos can serve like a SOB. I think for American fans in the level of Andy Roddick in his prime. I bet Raonic to actually this win this match at +805 at Pinnacle and bet a little on over 38 games. Certainly I have no doubt Federer can and will break this guy figuratively and emotionally but at +800 I'm inclined to say "Why not own a piece of Canadian tennis history when it occurs?" I think the games is reasonable. If Milos can get a set off Roger given Milos's ability to hold serve I would think this is a good bet. We're not pulling the wool over anyone at the books because 38 games is a heckuva alot of games for a guy who is +800 I'll tell you that. Just look at a few other lines. Seppi and Tsonga have their matches at 41 games and the lines are -160 or so roughly on the favourites. So I have a match at 38 games and a guy +800? That is a lot of faiith that Milos is going to win a lot of games in this match even if he loses in 3 sets. I'll hope he wins outright or at the very least hangs for a classic match vs. Roger.

Matchbook didn't have any liquidity when I bet but seem to have "opened" +880.

good read..since aussie open does not end in a 5th set tie breaker, rather you have to win by 2 games, I thikn its hard for raonic to win the whole match. I thikn raonic to win the frst set at +350 or so is a real good bet though..should probably be around +250...fed often takes awhile to get into a match

Certainly is a good play the 1st set. Actually wish I had done that it is better than the 38 games as a bet really. I'm up and although not watching am able to follow it online and not a good start. Milos went down 4-6 in the 1st set. It was 4-4 and 30-30 he double faulted and Federer made the break for 5-4 and closed him out. Over 38 games I know likely needed a Raonic set win to get there but certainly was room for 7-6 3 straight times or a push with one of the losses at 7-5. He's hanging in there 2nd set but down 4-5 but with serve. Unfortunately a 13 game set here unless he wins it won't help my over 38 bet. Fed clearly might be more focused here after already playing Milos a few times in tight matches. With Roger taking notice the kid will have to respond by raising his game if he even wants to match his other meetings against Fed. Add on: Probably done now got it to 6-6 but Milos loses the tiebreak and, of course, loses the first game of the 3rd set at love on his serve as he licks his wounds from the tiebreak. Not too hard to figure out at that point. Tempted to say he loses 6-0 in the 3rd but his serve is pretty good. To win the 38 games bet you need some help from Milos. To win the +800 you need help from Fed. Draining to play all of these matches it all ends with a loss to Djokovic anyway (have no idea really but I'll just speculate) want even someone like Fed to throw in the towel play with his kids for a week. No help either way here today it looks like.

Shame although I liked the value on Milos I definitely would have bet "Yes" if there were a prop "Roger will break Milos figuratively and emotionally".