Boston/Toronto NHL Thursday night--Handicapping, betting for this game

Boston/Toronto NHL Thursday night--Handicapping, betting for this game You can clearly see the move on the Bruins to beat the Maple Leafs tonight in their game in Boston. It is worth noting the scheduling dynamics and situations that cause these moves. (There is also a move on Ottawa to beat Winnipeg tonight probably for similar reasons as the Leafs game) (1) Leafs coming off an OT win over Winnipeg last night at home. Will play their 3rd game in 4 nights. The OT angle I don't think should be weighed too heavily in hockey betting and I don't think it is a big factor in moves. However, the 3rd game in 4 nights angle is the main cause I'm sure and is a very strong handicapping factor. I would argue it is close or more of an impact to a basketball back to back. There is a higher risk the Leafs won't come out with any jump and not have their legs in the 1st period. Or will fade later in the game forcing reliance on 3rd and 4th liners who don't log the same minutes as the main star players. (2) The Leafs will use Jonas Gustavsson in goal tonight. He is the back up goalie. It is also pretty strong stats wise the back up goalie doesn't have the same winning pct., save pct. etc. as the primary starter. It is partly because he's not as good of course but it is also he's played in games where the situation isn't strong. (1) and (2) are jointly correlated as we already know it is a bad situation for the Leafs compounded by going with the back up goalie. (3) The Bruins haven't been playing well probably some situational advantage that they will play inspired tonight and beat the Leafs. My post here is just for analytical purposes of a hockey move. I disagree with the play because personally I feel the Bruins should not have been -170 in this game. Being the defending champs obviously gives them some respect on the lines but I'm not sure it is warranted. The situation was probably already somewhat factored into the line as well so a clear further push on the Bruins is just something I can't back. Leafs had some success vs. Boston LY and are playing better than the Bruins are to start the year. I will lay that last -170 on the Bruins I see at Cal Neva--assuming one of you doesn't beat me while I type this note. But I will bet the Leafs best I can do on the puckline before game time.

Skeeter, Read somewhere that Leafs did not get into Boston until wee hours of the morning and did not lace up skates today for skate-around. Not sure if that will make a difference in your strategy but it's an intangible that should be noted. Gl, Rudy

Thanks, Rudy. I will say it probably wouldn't have changed my strategy I definitely had to bet the Bruins but the odds were just too high for me. A great spot for them but would have liked to see that line around -150 and then driving to -170. Driving from -170 and up to -185 and more is just far enough off in my own assessment anyway that if I laid the -170 only and they lost---I wouldn't be happy. I will take a juice loss presuming the Leafs don't get this back within a goal lose money on the Leafs. But I feel good. Lose money and I feel good about it. And you got to be able to do that out here. Mostly because I'm confident that sharp bettors are helping me by getting on the Bruins. For others not with an opinion and playing sharp money.....Bruins a very good bet. Why not change my strategy based on the factors you mentioned? Mainly I watched the game last night so I'm aware that the Leafs weren't getting into Boston until 2 in the morning or later. I will consider it a known factor The pre game skate probably was their coach making the decision that they could skip the morning skate and sleep in. See you at the rink boys! Be ready for tonight! Personally, I have no problem with that and probably not a bad move by Wilson so not really a negative for me. Leafs undefeated going into tonight as well due for a letdown. Lots of situations to love the Bruins tonight. I just didn't think the math of the original line was to my liking. If they were even -160 I might have just let my bet go on the Bruins.

thank you Skeeter. Great tip and analysis.

Just read the review and it was a beatdown. One of Wilson's comments post game "We just didn't have our legs". Boy am I an idiot to waste that -170. The Bruins allowed the 1st goal but scored 3 before the end of the first. Definitely happens in these situations. The Leafs hung around but got whacked for 3 more in the 3rd. Hung out the back up goalie for 43 shots.