Breeders Cup futures Just wanted to alert you guys to a of couple of nice overlays on the Wynn's Breeders Cup sheet (dated 9/7).
First off, Twirling Candy to win the Classic @ 75/1. This horse has a ton of ability, i mean a ton, and the way things have shaken out recently, it looks like the Classic is his most likely target. He won the Oceanside Stakes at a mile on grass in his two-turn (and stakes) debut, and just took the 1 1/8-mile Del Mar Derby on grass over the weekend. That being said, there's very little chance he'll be pointed to the Breeders Cup Mile, because his stablemate Sidney's Candy is being pointed there after his tour de force in the La Jolla Handicap (his grass debut), and trainer John Sadler won't be looking to enter both of his star colts in the same race.
That being the case, it was announced before the Del Mar Derby that Twirling Candy would be pointed to the Goodwood Stakes @ Oak Tree, which has traditionally been the top West Coast prep for the Classic. The surface switch isn't an issue, as Twirling Candy looked equally sensational winning an allowance race on the main track earlier this year, and the way he's been running, it's hard to expect anything other than a strong performance in that race. That in all likelyhood would land him in the Classic, where of course he'll still have to beat the mighty Zenyatta. No easy task, to put it mildly, but i can honestly say that of all the horses i've seen this year, Twirling Candy would probably pose the biggest threat to her. He would be running on dirt for the first time (the race is @ Churchill Downs this year), but that probably isn't a huge deal. All in all, a pretty large overlay at the current listed price.
The other one i wanted to mention is Sidney's Candy, who is listed for the Mile (not the Dirt Mile) @ 11/1. He looked fantastic early this year beginning with the San Vicente, and in fact he was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby (where he failed miserably). Given a break after that debacle, he returned after a layoff to run in the 1 1/8-mile Swaps Stakes, where i thought he ran a very solid race despite getting beat a nose as the 1/5 favorite. He set a contested pace along the inside, then opened up on the eventual winner coming off the turn, but i think the distance was probably a bit much for him coming off the long break, and he just got tired late. I expected an improved effort in his next race with the added conditioning under his belt, but in no way did i expect the absolutely monstrous performance that he turned in. It seems that he just adores the grass, and shortening up a bit in distance probably didn't hurt either. Looks like a gigantic threat to win the Mile (which is slightly shorter than the La Jolla, another positive) as long as he gets through the Oak Tree Mile in one piece. Price not huge with two months to go and a race in-between, but there's every chance he could end up being reasonably short price in the Mile, the European invaders notwithstanding. Hard to say without seeing the results of his next race, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 5/2 isn't out of the question by any means. That would make 11/1 look awfully good on raceday. Hard not to like at the current price.
