Canadiens/Bruins Saturday I placed a bet on the Canadiens +1.5-150 vs. Boston in Game #2 but lots of +1.5-160 but has moved up slightly . IMO this line is clearly too low on Montreal. No question Boston is in that "sharp" situation where it is assumed they must win to stay in the series now that they're down 1-0. Therefore, they are even more of a favourite in Game #2 then they were in Game #1.
The theory goes that Montreal has won their game in Boston, happy to split and return home to carry on from there.
November 11th Montreal 3 Boston 1 at Boston. Final consensus closing line Boston -145. (I'm just pulling from Vegas Insider I think their last line for the game.)
Dec. 16th Montreal 4 Boston 3 at Montreal. Line closing Montreal -130.
Jan 8th Montreal 3 Boston 2 (OT) at Montreal. Line closing Montreal -120.
Feb.9 Boston 8 Montreal 6 at Boston. Line closing Boston -160.
March 8 Montreal 4 Boston 1 at Montreal. Line closing Boston -120.
March 24th Boston 7 Montreal 0 at Boston. Line closing Boston -175.
April 14th Montreal 2 Boston 0 at Boston. Line closing Boston -180.
Let's give the Bruins way, way more credit than they deserve and say they should be -160 for this game. Heck I'll give him them -170 which is ridiculous but okay. The game total here is 5 (and they're betting under that total) so my estimate of a fair puck line might be as high as even +1.5-200 and probably could be convinced it should be +1.5-220.
If this line can even get to -170 on Boston I might bet them and go for the one goal game although I would really want -150.
Believe me would be thrilled to see someone tell me why this line is -200 on Boston.
