Conference Tournaments A handful of bids have been locked up via conference tournaments but a good
chunk of the action comes the next few days. I think there are 24 finals still to
be played starting Tuesday with four championship games. So far Mercer, Coastal
Carolina, Delaware, Manhattan, undefeated Wichita St, Wofford and E Kentucky
have won their tournament bids. Harvard gets in by way of winning the Ivy League.
Many of the off shores offer extended bet options on these TV games so there can
be some good bets available due to the books unfamiliarity with making props and
the like for many of these teams. It takes some homework but there are some
decent edges to be had. Definitely small-market bets with limited availability but
for those betting offshore it can be surprising how much they slap up on some
of these games. These line go up day of game so will try to cover some of the
possibilities before the numbers go up.
As far as looking ahead to the tournament, some decent bets are already available.
Here is one of my favorite lists. It's the OV/UN on number of teams from each
conference to make the tournament. These numbers vary wildly so will copy
and paste from the book that has it up now and add on if I see others. LVH usually
has this but I'm not in town at the moment. If anyone has their lines please post
them if possible.
2014 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROPS - Mar 12
LISTED CONFERENCE TEAMS TO MAKE THE 2013-14
BIG DANCE FIELD IF 68. ESPN.COM FOR RESULTS.
# OF TEAMS FROM ACC CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73501 OVER ACC TEAMS o5-200
12:00 PM 73502 UNDER ACC TEAMS u5+160
# OF TEAMS FROM AMERICAN CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73503 OVER AMERICAN TEAMS o5½-150
6:00 PM 73504 UNDER AMERICAN TEAMS u5½+120
# OF TEAMS FROM ATLANTIC 10 CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73505 OVER ATLANTIC 10 TEAMS o6+120
6:00 PM 73506 UNDER ATLANTIC 10 TEAMS u6-150
# OF TEAMS FROM BIG 12 CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73507 OVER BIG 12 TEAMS o7½+120
6:00 PM 73508 UNDER BIG 12 TEAMS u7½-150
# OF TEAMS FROM PAC 12 CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73511 OVER PAC 12 TEAMS o6½-145
2:00 PM 73512 UNDER PAC 12 TEAMS u6½+115
# OF TEAMS FROM SEC CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73513 OVER SEC TEAMS o4-200
6:00 PM 73514 UNDER SEC TEAMS u4+160
# OF TEAMS FROM BIG EAST CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73515 OVER BIG EAST TEAMS o3-200
6:00 PM 73516 UNDER BIG EAST TEAMS u3+160
# OF TEAMS FROM BIG TEN CONF TO MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE
Mar 12 73517 OVER BIG TEN TEAMS o6½-150
11:00 AM 73518 UNDER BIG TEN TEAMS u6½+120
From the above list taken from a major supplier of PayPerHead
services along with their own post-up business there are a couple
bets that look like they are off by 1/2. Doesn't sound like much
but when you are dealing with a result where the range of possible
outcomes is basically a max of 1 in either direction from the posted
number, being off by 1/2 unit is huge.
From the AAC # 73504 looks like the UN 5.5 +120 is a great bet.
It would probably still be a great bet at -150 as I see little chance
for anyone other than the top five teams getting in unless they win
the conference tournament. Houston getting an at-large is just not
going to happen. I took UN 5.5 +120 but would have gladly laid a
decent price on this. The right number to line this at is 5 with just a
juiced lean to the OV in case someone outside those top 5 were to win
the conference tourney. This is the type of conference that should have
been combined with another or offered in some alternative way because
the number is clearly 5 with little to no variance in the result possible.
2013-14 AMERICAN STANDINGS
TEAM ------------CONF/ OVR
#13 Cincinnatti--15-3 / 26-5
#5 Louisville-----15-3 / 26-5
#21 Connecticut 12-6 / 24-7
#19 Memphis----12-6 / 23-8
#25 SMU --------12-6 / 23-8
Houston----------8-10 / 16-15
Rutgers----------5-13 / 11-20
UCF--------------4-14 / 12-17
Temple-----------4-14 / 9-21
South Florida----3-15 / 12-19
========
Another bet that looks good is OV 5 -200 in the ACC.
A look at the teams in the ACC shows four locks and the
5th team, Pittsburgh, with an impressive schedule that
includes just 8 losses and to some pretty tough teams.
With losses to Virginia, @ N Car, Syracuse twice, vs Duke and
@ Cincy the committee will be hard-pressed to ignore this team.
I do not see a bad loss on the Pitt resume and would be shocked
if they somehow don't make it.
If Pitt makes 5 then that gives a free roll on a sixth getting through.
Any of a handful of teams could improve their chances with a
good run in the tournament. At -200 it is worth the price. I see
little chance of Pitt getting snubbed and a reasonable chance of
a team like Clemson, NC St or Fla St getting in.
2013-14 ACC STANDINGS
TEAM -------------------CONF------OVR
#6 Virginia ------------16-2-------25-6
#11 Syracuse---------14-4-------27-4
#7 Duke---------------13-5-------24-7
#15 North Carolina---13-5-------23-8
Pittsburgh-------------11-7-------23-8
Clemson---------------10-8-------19-11
North Carolina State---9-9-------19-12
Florida State------------9-9-------18-12
Maryland----------------9-9-------17-14
Miami (FL)--------------7-11------16-15
Wake Forest------------6-12 ------16-15
Georgia Tech-----------6-12 ------15-16
Notre Dame------------6-12 ------15-16
Boston College---------4-14 -------8-23
Virginia Tech-----------2-16--------9-21
There will be others to post this type of chart but
this was the first and only I found. Will revisit these tourney
bets when there is more availability, which should be soon.
