Cunningham vs. Ross (6/5) When betting on boxing it is advisable to look at all the possible outcomes to determine the best way to bet on an event.
On the 5th of July, Steve Cunningham is fighting Troy Ross. There are four possible outcomes for this fight and any fight for that matter.
Cunningham by decision, Cunningham by some form of KO, Ross by decision and Ross by KO. (I discount draws as those percentages are meaningless)
Can Cunningham win by decision? Yes
Can Cunningham win by KO? Yes
Can Ross win by decision? No
Can Ross win by KO? Maybe (he has power but Cunningham has never been KO'd and has fought much better punchers.)
In order to come to these probable outcomes, we need to analyze the fighters. Looking for strengths and weaknesses. Some question you may want to ask yourself.
1. Is there a size difference? (height/reach)
2. Is there a speed difference? (hand and foot)
3. Where is the fighting taking place? Why is it taking place?
4. Are they orthodox or southpaw? (converted or not?)
5. How is the fighters conditioning?
6. How old are they? (factor in number of fights and rounds along with age)
7. Is there film on these fighters? (have they fought common opponents?) (pay attention to significant losses)
8. Have they been active? (Fought in the last 6 months to a year) (doesn't effect all fighters)
9. Level of competition?
10. How do they fight? (brawler, boxer, counter puncher)
11. Defense
Those and other things go into looking at a fight.
I'll attempt to break down this fight. Some but not all necessarily effects a given fight.
1. SIZE.. Cunningham is 3 or 4 inches taller and has a 10 inch reach advantage. (it is useful if you can determine arm lenth as reach doesn't always tell you the full story)
2. SPEED.. I really don't see that much of a speed difference in hand speed, but foot speed and head movement I see big advantages for Cunningham.
3. LOCATION.. Cunningham recently got out of his obligations with Don King and is now fighting for Sauerland (Germany). This fight is in Germany and Cunningham is the hometown guy even though he's from Philly. New promotion, wants to put on a good show but probably doesn't want to get Cunningham in over his head as the big money will come from fighting Huck and others again.
4. RIGHT/LEFT.. Cunningham is orthodox and Ross is a southpaw. Southpaws are hard to train for though Cunningham's last opponent was a southpaw.
5. CONDITIONING.. Cunningham has gone 12 rounds in his last 5 fights and should have no issues with going the distance if necessary. Ross has fought only one fight scheduled to go 12 rounds and his longest fight was a 10 rounder. While this doesn't mean Ross can't go the distance it is telling he hasn't been scheduled for championship length fights other then one time.
6. AGE.. Cunningham is almost 34 and Ross is almost 35. Cunningham has fought 157 rounds and Ross 92. Experience edge to Cunningham, wear and tear edge to Ross.
7. FILM.. Watching film can be subjective. YouTube is a great source for film on fighters. You can watch numerous clips of Cunningham and a bit less of Ross. Do you see any glaring deficiencies? Where do they hold there guard? How is there footwork? How is there head movement? Often times it is best to analyze fights without the volume on. Announcers and Crowds are distracting and can paint a false picture.
8. ACTIVITY.. 11 months off for Cunningham and 6 months off for Ross. Fight promo's show up at the beginning of May. So not a long camp for either fighter. It can be useful if you can find out if fighters where canceled and why. (Cunningham was to fight in March and it was canceled)
9. Competition.. Cunningham the former belt holder has fought against elite level competition. (Adamek, Huck, Wlodarcyzk X2)
Ross has no notable fights other then winning the season 4 contender. That doesn't mean much.
10. STYLES.. Cunningham is a counter puncher and Ross is more of a Brawler. Basically this will be Ross coming forward and Cunningham moving backwards. Though there will be plenty of times they are toe to toe.
11. DEFENSE.. Cunningham has a great guard and terrific head and foot movement. Ross has a decent high guard but drops his hands a bit when he goes to throw his punches.
Like I said these and other things are important factors when analyzing fights.
How do I see this fight going. Cunningham is a pro's pro, he has a fantastic jab and has a huge reach advantage. I also think that this is a good fight but somewhat of a tune up for Cunningham. Certainly Ross isn't there to lay down, I just don't thing this is a good style matchup for him but it should be a decent payday for him. His best chance is to catch Cunningham with a left, but better have tried and failed. (Cunningham has been down a few times)
The Bet...
Cunningham -450
GL
