[QUOTE=Skeeter;43965]No doubt the experts Alf and Dude weigh in weather, course factors, etc. into their selections. Mine don't have these. Would be grateful for any comments
(1) I played Stricker +125 vs. Kuchar. I think this is a very good bet. Certainly not a sure winner. The number is at 5 Dimes and I think anything +110 or more has to be a reasonable bet. Stricker can win this tournament for sure so I like this price. I'm not as convinced Kuchar is ready to win this tournament.
(2) Somebody doesn't like YE Yang. He's +140 against Webb Simpson. I bet Yang. It is a pattern to be honest IMO that the Korean golfers get no respect on these lines based on their level of play. I haven't heard Yang's name for a month or two but he has a history of doing well on tough courses and major championships sort of doesn't he? I think his distance off the tee is reasonable. He's pretty strong. I know Simpson is a real up and comer and got a win but is there something here why he would be -160 to beat YE Yang? I'd increase my bet if I could be positive I'm not missing something completely like Yang was missing an arm.
(3) I put in a little on Phil to beat Luke Donald at +120. I really don't want to bet against Donald but it just seems tempting with Phil to get him at + odds. I like the track record. He obviously isn't going to be in contention just because he's showing up here but he is a major champion who steps up his game.
(4) The Dude has Charley Hoffman at -115 for a 1.5% play. It is worth noting this play is -105 at Pinnacle. I wouldn't give this matchup a 2nd thought if Dude wasn't playing it but I don't think Dude is the only one who thinks Hoffman is a live sleeper in this as in reviewing the tourny I read Hoffman's name mentioned. I've seen him do well in other places. It is interesting that Gay is pretty consistent though. Not bothering to look up the stats but the name "short knocker" Dude gives him is telling me he isn't too long off the tee and I think Hoffman hits it pretty good. It is a long course. I did bet this one as well.[/QUOTE]
1) Do not disagree with Strick at this price, his ball flight concerns me a bit, as he does not spin (takes small to no divot) it as well as others.
2) I know the group that bet Webb, and they are very sharp. I liked Webb at the opener but after they were thru the price was too steep. Yang at this price is prob an OK bet.
3) Phil at +120 is an OK price, I made Luke -122.
4) Gay is the #1 player in driving accuracy year in and year out. But only hits it an avg of 270 yds off the tee, ranked 185 in distance. He is a great scrambler and putter, but this course is a bomber's track and his last 3 tournies his driving accuracy has been 57,57,50% so he is not only short but erratic now, and I feel he has no shot here over 4 days vs my boy "Dumpster Dave" Hoffman who is a bomber.
Good stuff Skeeter...Good Luck
