Early UFC 130 Observations Here are some early fight observations for some of the fights including some picks for this weekend's UFC 130. Tough card for me to find good value. More to come later in week
[B]Quinton Jackson –253 vs. Matt Hamill +225[/B](31 - 8 – 0) (10 - 2 – 0)
Rampage would have to win at a rate of 71.7% or better to break even at -253 and for Hamill its 30.8% at +225.
It seems like Rampage has been around forever (39 fights) yet he is the younger at least calendar wise in this fight by 1.7 years. Jackson has only fought 3 times since December 2008 while Hamill has only had 4 fights since that time. Is Hamill going to win this fight out striking Rampage... I doubt it. So that means he has to take Rampage down and control this fight with Rampage on his back. Jackson is no slouch avoiding takedowns. According to UFC, Jackson avoids takedowns at a rate of 75%. Hamill is even better defending the takedown at 92%. So if this fight turns out to be a stand up affair which I am predicting, although Hamill has come so far with his stand up since TUF, he is out of his league with Rampage. I see either a decision (5D +153 inside distance) or KO win (5D +163 inside distance) by Rampage assuming he comes into this fight healthy and in shape. Going with some money on both Rampage outright and by decison.
[B]Frank Mir -128 vs. Roy Nelson +116[/B]
(14 - 5 – 0) (15 - 5 – 0)
Mir would have to win at a rate of 56.1% or better to break even at -128 and for Hamill its 46.3% at +116.
After Nelson’s beat down at the hands of a very heavy handed Junior dos Santos, I don’t think the guy can be knocked out. Surprisingly Arlovski was able to stop him yet dos Santos went the distance with Big Country despite some huge shots thrown and landed. Mir at 32 is a BJJ black belt and very dangerous on the ground and he can be sneaky on his feet throwing that left when it isn’t expected. Roy who is 35 is a well-rounded fighter who has deceiving cardio. Looking at last 5 fights, Mir has beat Cro Cop (washed up), Kongo and Big Nog (injured) while suffering losses to Carwin and Lesnar. Nelson has wins over Struve and a less experienced back then Schaub while losing to dos Santos, Monson and Arlovski. It’s been 8 months since Mir last fought and over 9.5 for Nelson. I just don’t see Mir losing this fight if fit and ready.
[B]Thiago Alves –195 vs. Rick Story +175[/B]
(18 - 7 – 0) (12 - 3 – 0)
Alves would have to win at a rate of 66.1% or better to break even at -195 and for Story its 36.4% at +175.
Alves is a gigantic 170 pounder who walks around in the 200 range. He has faced the who’s who in the 170 lb division. His only losses in his last dozen include GSP and twice to Fitch. Nothing to be ashamed of. Both fighters are about the same age and last fought about 5.5 months ago. Story has the ability to win this fight but I don’t think so. Will hold off on any wager pending weigh-in where Alves does sometimes struggle cutting all that weight.
[B]Brian Stann –135 vs. Jorge Santiago +122[/B]
(10 - 3 – 0) (23 - 8 – 0)
Stann would have to win at a rate of 57.4% or better to break even at -134 and for Santiago its 45.0% at +121.
Stann made short work of his last opponent in usually iron chinned Chris Leben 5 months ago. This is a return to the UFC for Brazilian Santiago who sports a MMA record of 23-8-0 and fought last 9 months ago. Santiago had 3 UFC fights (1W 2L) back in 2006. Five of Santiago’s losses came by was of (T)KO. I’ve seen great improvements in Stann since his move to Jackson’s camp. I think Stann is great for the UFC, a decorated veteran and I don’t think at this stage they (UFC) would put him in with someone they believe can beat him. I am with Stann in this contest.
[B]Kendall Grove -155 vs. Tim Boetsch +140[/B]
(12 - 8 – 0) (12 - 4 – 0)
Grove would have to win at a rate of 60.8% or better to break even at -155 and for Boetsch its 41.7% at +140.
Boetsch, the wrestler is coming down in weight. I see him taking Grove down and if so the big question will be whether the lanky Grove will be able to spin one of his submissions on Boetsch or will Boetsch be able to avoid the submissions and pull out a ground and pound victory. My money will be on the underdog Boetsch in this match up.
