English Premiership Game of the Month Birmingham City over Liverpool

English Premiership Game of the Month Birmingham City over Liverpool 1525 - 5 Units - Birmingham City Over Liverpool -1.02 pick'em and plus 1/2 a goal This game came out on Pinnacle eight days ago and when you see a spot which screams of value, you want to jump on it. I'm not sure if the oddsmaker was asleep at the wheel, but Liverpool, a team very much on the fall in the last twelve months travels to St. Andrews to take on a side which offers one of the Premiership's best defenses and emerging scoring threats like Zigic from Valencia at the striker position to help out Jerome and now signing Hleb (former Arsenal midfielder) in the transfer market. A sign of the times is Real Madrid Van Der Vaart having the chance to play at Anfield during the transfer market in the summer and turning it down, along with the departure of key holding midfielder Javier Mascherano who joined Barcelona last week. While I respect Roy Hodgson as a coach, Liverpool looked deshelved against Man City, and lifeless at home against newly promoted side West Brom in their last home match where they narrowly escaped with a 1-0 win. Birmingham City on the other hand lost key people like Joe Hart at goalkeeper but Ben Foster has filled in so well he is now third in the pecking order on the English National Side. City is playing well and I suspect the Asian and European syndicates will absolutely blast this game and it will go off as a pick'em. The bottom line is you are getting the better team, with the better defense, and better goalkeeping at home and receiving half a goal on half a bet, meaning if the game draws you win half a bet. There is value in this up to -1.25 and it is my biggest play in the first four weeks of the season. I'm going to war with Birmingham City over Liverpool...

Thx man - I love your writeups!

not sure about it John - would not go mad on it myself. will be surprised if it closes shorter than plus quart -115 on game day. I have not bet it but good luck with it.

Thanks for your input Costar...At the time of my writing new arrival Hleb was slated to play as their new acquisition in the transfer market. Since the announcement of him not playing due to an injury he received on international duty with Belarus, some of the air has been let out. But I have the game with my numbers at B' City Pick'em and +1/2 at -1.35, hence the reason why I wrote to take B' CIty up to -1.25. All that being said, I'm confident the game day money will find it's way on the St. Andrews side and move it towards the 1.25/1.30 level, still presenting a nice scalp for someone looking to play back. I clearly am in good shape at the moment getting down at -1.02, but with all that said I absolutely love this spot and have no inclination to play back on anything...

The money on this game is all coming in on Liverpool. And a lot of it at that. It's been bet off of pick'em and half a goal, to Birmingham plus half a goal -1.13. I have been pouring through the papers and I don't see any notable injuries or stories that hit the press. Well...this is going to be a war between Netto and the Syndicates, not what I was hoping for as it's always nice to be able to have the steam on your side. However, sans a major injury that isn't out there, I absolutely love Birmingham City in this spot...

I just added another unit at -1.15 plus half a goal. If there is an injury and I see it at gametime I will play out of this, however, I think most of the steam has come in here and we will probably see some profit taking for the guys pushing the Liverpool money. This was close to a 50 cent move over the last 4 days with no reported major injuries. Again, I'd prefer to be on the side of the steam but this is the first big game of the year for me I've been on the wrong side of the money before kickoff...Let's hope it goes in our favor...

We'll take 0-0 as we were on the front foot most of the match, but picked up 3.5 units today as Birmingham City was the true side of value...

Nice call John. Definite right side here.

nice call. had to play pk in 1 shop and + 1/2 in another.

Great call John! Both of my shops only had the three-way betting so I got a small loss but was curious if that is your only option would you just pass or bet the win and the draw?? Thanks.