Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines One matchup that sharp bettors are on is Bryce Molder to beat Ryuji Imada. Imada opened the favourite at -121 and can now be bet at +160. This matchup is interesting for 3 reasons. (1) the magnitude of the move (2) I hypothesized last week sharp bettors were betting against Molder but perhaps they were more interested in Bo Van Pelt (3) Imada seems to stink but actually doesn't stink at this tournament in his experience.
The golf talk is always about the fade of AK and it continues this week. And for the first time it is clear to me why they're fading him. He's up against Villegas. Villegas is -129 at Pinnacle and looks to have opened at +101. It moved quickly and hasn't moved much since. Villegas looks to be in good form now T19 last week. AK missed cut last week but finished T10 here last year. He's also missed cuts here previously. I'm actually surprised the steam isn't more against AK as we've seen some big ones.
I also noticed some big play on Gary Woodland against DA Points. Woodland was the rookie LY who did great hits the ball a mile. Points is off to a good start this year and won the Pebble Beach LY. He faded LY but I think there is a buzz that he's strong on the West Coast part of the tour. Woodland opened -105 and has leaped to -144.
I finally did place some very small bets with none more than 1/4 of my unit size.
Kevin Sutherland -117 over Briny Baird. Reason: Sutherland strong history at event. He opened higher so there is some money on Baird though so I'm countering steam here.
Ben Crane +126 over Bubba Watson. Reason: Both strong contenders here and I thought Crane as a dog had some value. Note: I have added to this bet and is now a half unit play for me.
Ryuji Imada +159 over Bryce Molder Reason: Will go against the smart money at hopefully the peak price. (Putting my mouth guard on now for the potential teeth kicking I will get on this)
Vijay Singh +105 vs. Robert Allenby. I hate Allenby as a putter but he's good. Vijay played well last year. If he were even -105 I wouldn't do it but I will do it for plus money.
DA Points +130 vs. Gary Woodland: I will leave my mouth guard on for this one. Going up against sharp bettors again. Does Points have the magic touch on the West Coast? I'm hoping so.
Camillo Villegas -128 vs. AK. I'm joining the sharp bettors here and paying the highest price. My bet is more on CV than fading AK but to the extent guys are out there and want to fade AK it fits that strategy too.
Geoff Ogilivy +116 vs. Aaron Baddeley. Baddeley has missed cut here two years in a row. Boy, I'm glad these bets are small. Note: I have added to this bet a little bit.
Good luck. Would love to read what anyone else did at this.
