Guaranteed Winner! LOCK***

Guaranteed Winner! LOCK*** Romney to win Florida -215 (Bovada) Obama to win Florida +333 (Intrade) Example) 2150 to win 1000 and then 727 to win 2423 locks in a $273 win. $2877 returns $3150 for a 9.13% ROI.

There are a lot of opportunities out there like this. Keep up the good work. In 2004 and 2008, Rasmussen was three percentage points on the red side until about a week before the election, before "magically" getting it right. That way they can market their polling as being close to the result despite having an agenda the rest of the cycle. Pay attention to this when they release polls this week, but be ready to start believing them when they come out next week. There is so much money to be won with a national election.

Current prices: Obama Romney Pinny -186 +167 In-Trade -176 +131 Ladbrokes -275 +200 Bet 365 -250 +175 JSS What do you make of this? I have never wagered on an election, your input is greatly apprecitated. Thanks Kluggie

Intrade does not take a position. What does Matchbook offer? It should be similar. In diminishing order of possibility, I think: The offshore books are taking a position on Obama The offshore books are seeing a lot more Obama money than Intrade, because of the demographics of its user base The rest of the world seems to be a bigger fan of the president than Intrade users (who are more likely to be American, right?) and perhaps are betting with their heart. Non-Americans don't understand how Romney even has a chance Finally, it is possible that Intrade bettors are more likely to think the national poll means anything, rather than the electoral college

Sounds cliche' but whoever wins Ohio will win this in my opinion. If still looking to wager on this, and trying to find the best number, I would include Ohio lines in you search.

Can you parlay that stuff (states and outcomes, or even states and other states)? Because how cool would that be? [url]https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/EVP_average.html[/url] is a fun tool. It tells you the tipping point and is useful because states generally don't flip independently of each other (although Arizona is quietly becoming in play, the same way Montana was in 2008). And right now, yep, the tipping point state is Ohio. For a long time it was Nevada.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;54442]Can you parlay that stuff (states and outcomes, or even states and other states)? Because how cool would that be?[/QUOTE] Haha i actually was thinking the same thing. Unfortunately I doubt it. I've tried it at 3 different places (5D, Bovada, my local) and they were denied.

[url]https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/triumph-of-the-electoral-nerds/[/url] Another opinion, mostly aligned with what I'd said

[url]https://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/gov-christie-praises-president-obama-124558550--abc-news-politics.html[/url] In terms of exposure, you can take on a little more Obama now. This could tip a few swing states in his favor (and also sets up Christie for a nice futures bet for 2016). SOMETHING will happen that should let you play back on Romney this weekend, perhaps even as soon as the stockmarket dropping 3% tomorrow. (As an aside, if you can bet on what will happen in the market, bet on down arrows. The market doesn't like being restricted from selling for a period of time, plus the market didn't build in the effects of the storm last week like it should have.) Your total risk shouldn't be more than about 4% of your bankroll, remember. That's net of both sides of course, but for your own bankroll, your worst-case scenario should net out as a 4% loss, max.

Here's a trend for you... Only one time since 1992 has a candidate for president leading polling averages by 2 or more in a single state lost that state on Election Day (Texas, 1992 Clinton was +3.5 and lost to Bush). Take it for what it's worth, but when you consider the early vote ballot distribution by party provided by the Iowa Secretary of State, the number of those ballots as a % of the expected turnout totals, and the public polling of those who claim to have early voted, I don't see how Mitt Romney overtakes Barack Obama on election day. This is all publicly available data, so do your own due diligence, but out of all the state's available, Iowa for Obama looks the best for me. Bias: I am a Democrat and I am not personally making this wager.