Hockey Coorelated Parlay Question....

Hockey Coorelated Parlay Question.... So I have a book that is allowing me to parlay the puckline with the totals. I used to destroy books doing these but it has been so long I can't remember if I am doing something wrong. I'm 99% sure I used to parlay the -1.5 (+ Money) puckline side with the OVERS. These usually pay out at 4-1 or better. However I just got set up with this guy last week and I want to say over the last 40 games the -1.5 puckline and OVER has only gotten there maybe 3-4 times. I know this is a small sample size but it got me wondering... Did I used to bet the -1.5 puckline with the UNDER? These would pay much better (Normally 6-1 or better)... I think -1.5 and the OVER is the correct EV play but anyone with any recent history with these, I would appreciate your feedback. Thanks

The best ones used to be +1.5 and Under. The lower the total, the better. I think -1.5 and O on away teams was also profitable. After the overtime rule changed (no ties), the +EV went away. I ran the numbers for the next 2 years on both +1.5 and -1.5 and home and away and didn't find anything meaningful. The higher totals combined with extra goals in overtime killed the golden goose. I have not run it since as it seemed pretty clear the +EV was gone and books hate these so even if there is a tad of +EV (which I doubt) wasn't worth it. I made a killing from Wagerweb on these for years.

There is no doubt there is +EV or else at least one of the 25 other outs I have would offer these. Noone and I mean noone offers these...finding an out that offers them is like finding a needle in a haystack... Now I just have to remember how to beat them.

The most correlated is +1.5 and U. Most books stopped offering them pre the overtime change. When the change occurred the only place out of 20-30 books I could still play them was Wagerweb. My hunch is most books have not gone back and run the numbers or they would find almost all of these are not +EV (+1.5 and 5.5 may still be but the 6s and 6.5s are not and all of them together are not. Before the overtime rule you could play them all blindly. In any case, +1.5 and U is the most correlated by a long ways. If the total is 5.5 and the line +1.5 the options for 5 or under are 5-0, 4-1, 4-0, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0, 2-3, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5. Of those, 12 of the 18 under 5.5 have 1.5 cover. IF there is still +EV the most is likely on the +1.5 and 5.5 totals. I don't think it occurs on totals of 6 or higher. I also dont think many books have gone back and looked at this after turning them off. There was a time when blind monkeys could make a fortune! If I recall (and this can probably still be verified if someone has an MVP password) StevieY also ran them post overtime at SSB and concluded they were no longer profitable. I don't want to put words in his mouth though as this was years ago so maybe if he's here he can chime in or someone can ask him over at his forum or find the old posts.

Why would the OVER 5.5 and -1.5 subsets be profitable? Seems the Overtime rule doesn't change anything as you have to have a 2 puck lead in regulation before or after the rules change. Plus you are getting from 4-1 to 7-1 instead of barely better than even money to play the dogs +1.5. Does this not make sense or am I overlooking something? Thanks

I too thought the over -1.5 would be profitable with the overtime rule. I found it was not. The vigs on the overs may be higher now. Maybe someone with current data could run it again. I don't have any hockey past 07 or 08 though I will in a week or two. Once I have it I will run the last 2-3 years.

burger, do they have 1P totals available with 1P spread?

That would be like gold! The best ever in the correlated world was soccer ties and u2.5 or 3. This used to be so easy!

[QUOTE=tgunn;39516]burger, do they have 1P totals available with 1P spread?[/QUOTE] No. Only games. I also thought betting -1.5 with UNDER (Usually even better odds as the OVER is normally juiced) may be profitable but it just seems you have so many games that are favorite leading by a goal late in a game and get the empty netter. Does this make sense to anyone? For example... Tonight (May lose all 3)... I have: Van-1.5 OVER 5.5 getting paid a little over 5 to 1. PHX-1.5 OVER 5 getting paid exactly 5 to 1. Col-1.5 OVER 5.5 getting paid exactly 5.5 to 1. I just don't see how this can't be long term profitable. Someone please explain how this is wrong. Thanks

[QUOTE=tgunn;39516]burger, do they have 1P totals available with 1P spread?[/QUOTE] I do have a couple of sites with 1P Totals and basic money lines -115 for either side on the side of tonights Cal/Col game. It allows you to parlay either side with over or under 1.5 goals in the 1P. Is this what you are referring to? There are no puckline for the 1P's on my accounts though.