Honda Classic The Honda Classic is held at the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. Known for "The Bear Trap" this Jack Nicklaus and Tom Fazio design is a very stern test, does not give up many birdies and with rain on Wed and the wind picking up on Friday and Sat, this is going to be a battle of the fittest.....as we saw last year when Camillo Villegas dominated the field.
[B]Lee Westwood -115 vs Luke Donald[/B]
I've done an extensive study over the past three years about betting against the previous tournament's winner in matchups. It is a 64% winner if you can find a matchup against him the very next week on the schedule.
The guys on Tour play for over a $million$ bucks every week and a win gives you a two year exemption. Also, the winner receives huge Fed Ex Cup points, usually enough to get through the first two events, a trip to the Masters, a World Ranking spike, more sponsor/endorsement money, exemptions and sponsor invites to tournaments all over the world and more than anything that I have found to be invaluable information....the Tour player that wins the previous week, has plenty lifted off his shoulders, (unless it's Tiger or Mickelson) a chance to relax and will not put in the practice time needed to stay sharp. Plus, there is the celebrating, partying and extra interviews and media coverage expected.
So far this year, only one player has a Top 25 after winning the previous week and for the past three weeks on the PGA Tour the winner has missed the cut including last week where Aaron Baddeley after win in L.A. at Riviera and showing us that his swing was back on plane and that fine putting stroke rolling well, dogged it down in Cancun against a field that wasn't half as good as the one he beat.
Luke Donald won the WGC Accenture Matchplay event last week, in a tournament and course that suits his game on a course that was wide open with little rough. This week the rough is 2.5 inches deep and will play very difficult with more rain. Luke injured his wrist in the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in heavy rough, he will not go at it hard in the rough after winning last week, not worth the gamble. Luke won this event in '06 but that was on a much easier course at Mirasol.
I'll still take Lee Westwood over Martin Kaymer and twice on Sundays. With a win here he'll regain his No.#1 status. He has had extra time to prepare for this event and will now begin the Florida swing and preparation to get his game in top shape heading to the Masters.
[B]Charlie Wi -145 vs Henrik Stenson[/B]
Wi has made 3 of 4 cuts this season. He was solid here last year with a T8 finish. Stenson as we have mentioned before cannot hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat. He has some serious swing and atiitude issues and we'll keep betting against him until he improves.
[B]YE Yang -110 vs Anthony Kim[/B]
Yang won here two seasons ago and he won by taming the Bear Trap. He has an underrated long game, plus a streaky putter and last week we noticed a change in his putting stroke and he performed well in the matchplay event.
Kim is a hit and miss player, very inconsistent. He had a 2nd place finish here last year. But since then his thumb injury is something that he will have to deal with long term and he has been quite erratic lately. With the rough up and a more premium on driving it in play, we don't like his chances.
