How easy was that Fred Couples prop from Tim P? First off hats off to Tim Patterson for that great bet on Fred Couples to make the cut. What a cliche of laughing your way to
the cash window.
Tim's post and the odds of Geoff Ogilvy to make the cut at -200 just had to make me look into this issue further.
First of all the top 48 guys and ties make the cut. However, if a golfer is within 10 of the leader they also make the cut. I don't know how many golfers one could expect to make the cut but with those rules you got to figure 52?? From what I can see this year 63 guys made the cut. I wouldn't expect that every year and I haven't looked into the past but from the rules it certainly seems possible. I guess the rules technically allow everyone to make the cut if they can be within 10.
What is unique about the Masters I think is that some of the field is made up by former champions who have lifetime exemptions. I think we could have had a draft and I bet we could all could nail 10 guys that weren't going to make the cut. Craig Stadler? Come on. Larry Mize? Ben Crenshaw? Woosnam? Sandy Lyle? These guys are certified corpses come Saturday.
Olazabal? He is in your top 20 to miss. Mike Weir? Not a certified miss but really like his chances. Tom Watson? Langer?
32 guys didn't make the cut (Jason Day a withdrawal) and 10 of them seem like a certainty to miss.
For this year 63 out of 95 guys make the cut so 66% overall made the cut but the true percentage is 74% when I eliminate these 10 ceremonial players.
Now 63 is high I bet so let's assume 52 usually make it so I'm back to 60% make the cut (I've assumed we've eliminated the 10 ceremonial guys again.)
I have to take into account that some of the guys perhaps the top 20 have much higher chances of making the cut so that perhaps an average guy true chances of making the cut are 50%? But I would also argue that some golf analysts would be able to make a dent in the other 22 guys who didn't make the cut. I think a few of them had the look of probably not making the cut as well. Rory Sabbatini struggling all year. Steele struggling. Lewis, Mills some amateurs never heard of them. Doesn't mean they can't make the cut but if you got 10 people drafting guys to not make the cut these guys don't make it to the
3rd round. Even Darren Clarke I bet you most golf analysts give him the stamp "Won't make cut".
Fred Couples an average guy here? I doubt it. Tim outlined his recent history at the course. His current year, etc. In fact, was he probably in the group of top 20 golfers to make it?
Easy to do this in hindisght but Fred Couples 60% to make this cut? Geoff Ogilvy 67%? (Ogilvy 6 for 6 now 7 for 7 made cuts here). These prices just seem low given the way we could have over 60 guys make the cut and we have at least 10
guys we can almost all agree won't make the cut. And I think sharp analysts can do some damage on the next 10 guys
not to make the cut.
If you're holding the KJ Choi ticket to make the cut of course you lose but it seems most tickets here are pretty safe
