[QUOTE=bkeiller;22272]100% agreed that we have no control, Tonya Harding excluded :), however I am talking about when you LOSE the game, therefore the chance was simply in your mind.
I admit that it is a contrived philosophical discussion, but for me personally, a loss is a lot easier to take if I just feel I got beat cause I had the wrong side rather than I got screwed and really should have won.
I do understand the counter that from a professional handicappers point of view you may rather think that you handicapped the game correctly and just got screwed rather than you were just wrong and have it shake your faith in your ability. For me, who is just throwing darts or flipping coins, it doesn't matter.[/QUOTE]
In follow up to the point above, I try to optimistically react to both kinds of losses:
1. The Bad Beat
Reaction: I am competent. I know what I'm doing. If this game is played 100 times, I know my pick wins more than 52.4 games. I simply got hit with negative variance.
2. The Bad Bet
Reaction: I made a mistake. What was my error? What was the flaw in my logic? How can I learn from this? I'll be careful about repeating the potentially flawed thought process and/or analysis that led to this pick.
