Humana Challenge--Old Bob Hope Desert Classic

Humana Challenge--Old Bob Hope Desert Classic This is where the board really misses Alf--and perhaps Dude---if he doesn't return. I thought I would at least try to start a conversation on some of the matchups that might be news. (1) There was a big move on Bo Van Pelt over Bryce Molder. Molder is now at least +150 in this matchup. We remember Molder as the guy last year who drives the ball like a 90 golfer but if he's anywhere on the green he makes his putts. He had a good week last week in Hawaii. Van Pelt had a great year last year including closing the year off well in the later months. The courses here are going to lead to low scores. Perhaps that is a disadvantage to Molder in that his putting skill is muted here as everybody just tears these courses apart. I noticed Molder hasn't played this tournament before in his career. I really want some debate more than a bet but I'll start out and say I would be considering Molder at +150 and I might think it is a good bet. Is it the course why he's being faded here? Is it Van Pelt and the expectation of a top 10 from him? Any ideas? (2) All the matchups with Bill Haas have him priced liked he's a chump. He's the Fex Ex Cup champion and has done extremely well at this tournament in the past. But he's +152 vs. Matt Kuchar; +129 against Phil; and +112 against Nick O'Hern for god sake. I looked up O'Hern and it looks like he had a few top 10 finished at the end of last year. But a quick review of the rest of his career this guy is 50/50 to make any cut never mind win the Fed Ex Cup. I'm just sayin'. Maybe someone else knows here why he's so good. .

We all miss Alf (although I swear he was 25-0 on match-ups when I faded and 10-15 when I tailed...) Bo playing well, perhaps better than his score thus far. Looks to certainly be worth a bet over the West Coast swing at least. Good point on Molder's putting being muted--just not sure that is the type of game worth backing week-to-week. Would love to know how the moves do over time (sounds like you keep a notebook?) Lastly, it does look like they have yet to catch up with Anthony Kim and it will be a repeat of 2012 so fade him hard until they do. No view on Haas yet. Good luck

Thanks. No bets yet for me this year on PGA. I actually might have bet these mentioned here but I waited for some input and quite honestly just didn't get around to it. I usually spend part of Wed afternoon reviewing the upcoming PGA event and I seemed to always have a play or two I made on my own. Along with plays from Alf or Dude I did all right and was going to raise my unit size for matchups this year. The moves are hiuge in golf. I don't know why. I assume it has something to do with syndicates or large bettors having to pop these plays over and over to get the volume they want on it because of the limits. All of the major books are scalping themselves on this stuff. Hass opens a favourite vs. Phil and closes +129. I would like to say that blindly betting at the peak of this would be profitable against the move but there are 2 problems with that approach: 1. I don't know the peak. 2. The original move might be better than I thought. Other than that, it is probably a great strategy. I try to DVR some of the golf and that will help me as the season goes on

I'll make it a point to look at where the big money might have been in the golf matchups. The big money were winners so my idea to fade them.....not a good idea at least this week. I'm sure there were other plays they had of course but these ones just stuck out because of the magnitude of the move. (1) Van Pelt got it done over Molder. In fact Molder missed the cut. He shoots a 76 in the 3rd round and didn't make it to the final round. Van Pelt was probably not as good as they hoped for but was the play on Van Pelt or against Molder? (2) Fading Bill Haas. This seemed to be the play as the pattern was in 3 matchups so I would have to classify that as a play against him. The big money wins 2 out of 3 and they could have gone 3-0. The only win for Haas was against O'Hern and he beat him by one. At the same time he didn't lose by much to Phil. so that the experts could have ended up only 1-2 on the fade vs. Haas. Kuchar was well ahead of Haas at the end so an easy winner for the big bettors I think.