John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic Bryce Molder -105 vs Pat Perez I laid 10 cents higher than this line last night and quite often this season we have been on the right side of the matchup despite the line moves. If you have read my handicaps in the past you'll recall me saying and I'll stand by my quote, that "Molder is the best putter on Tour and perhaps the best putter I have ever seen." He rolls the rock with precision speed because his hands due not break down through the stroke, a move that is very similar to Phil Mickelson's. Perez is a hot head, the new version of Steve Pate "The Volcano" on the PGA Tour. If he is not near the lead late or near the cut line on Friday he will tank, and mail it in. He will never win The Vardon Trophy that's for sure. (stroke avg). He was T38 LW at the AT&T National after a month off and T39 and T30 in the John Deere Classic L2Y. Nothing to get excited about. Molder is hot, playing his best golf right now, B2B Top 10's and has fired 7 of 8 rounds in the 60's. TPC Deere Run gives up allot of birdies (1810 LY!) and that should fit Molder here very well.

I got Molder at +133 through Pinnacle. :)

There is a group that is on opp sides of both Alf and my plays...."HIT IT AGAIN".

You've really done it to yourself this time. I played Molder +135. In my review of the tournament neither golfer got a lot of press coverage. But Molder is 10th on the fantasy list this weekend where I follow on the PGA tour site. The only angle I can see for a move on Perez is that overall he is quite highly ranked as a player who makes birdies. This is a very easy track and one Alf even comments is one of the top courses for birdies. Molder is also a really short hitter (just looking at stats I have no idea what this guy looks like) and doesn't even make a lot of greens in regulation. Alf has to be right here. He must be one helluva putter because if he wasn't he's teeing up at his local course with this buddies this weekend and not on the PGA tour. But Molder is hot right now based on recent play but Perez isn't out of form. He's made 3 cuts in a row. His overall ranking is 51st compared to 91st for Molder. Their earnings are similar this year. The history at this tourny is advantage perhaps to Perez. He's been -9 a few times and I only see one missed cut. Seems to play here quite often. While Molder isn't here much. Was -9 in one event within the last few years and had a bad missed cut but I wouldn't weigh that too much. All in all, one can't possibly lay -145 or more on Perez. This has to be fantastic bets at these prices on Molder. I think the matchup is about even and maybe the guys who played that on Perez felt he was a good bet. I would think that would be the end of any value on Perez. At -110 I'm pretty sure one loses interest in Perez but they probably had to pop that if they liked him. I can't see how they could bring themselves to lay -125 on Perez.

[QUOTE=TheDude;44370]There is a group that is on opp sides of both Alf and my plays...."HIT IT AGAIN".[/QUOTE] And I did, 2 units up to 3.5 units. GL to us.

Anybody have opinions on a few other matchups I saw? Andres Romero +163 vs. Brandt Jobe and Jonathan Byrd +158 against David Toms. Both of these matchups seem closer than these odds. Toms has some mighty impressive stats but Byrd is a top golfer out there. The stats would say that Romero and Jobe are much closer than those odds. Jobe has really played well this year but I've noticed Romero recently. I put a little on Byrd and less on Romero. I'd put more on them with any encouragement.

Romero is a loose cannon, plays well once every 6 weeks and cannot reccommend .......good price on Byrd there seems way too high even though Toms is the ulitmate birdie machine if the greens are soft...pass.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;44373]Jonathan Byrd +158 against David Toms. [/QUOTE] Winner before breakfast. Toms WD after front 9.

Thanks again Alf. Projected cut now up to -4.

I don't know anything about golf but years ago was following a solid golf capper (who has since disappeared). I lost 4200 on Toms after he W/D after 1 stroke! He tee'd off on One and quit saying he injured his back. This guy should be an automatic fade since he is so willing to bag it.