Leafs/Sabres tonight

Leafs/Sabres tonight I bet the Leafs on the puck line tonight but I see lots of +140 on them around and even +145 at Bet Cris. Wow. That is a scalp to Matchbook. Game is in 10 minutes so not much notice if you like this play...or the scalp. Leafs have lost 11 in a row at home. It has been a complete debacle with horrible goaltending, many games with under 20 shots on net and lacking spirit in most of them. It is a franchise record losing streak. Kudos to Rick J as he's put in a few bets on them but they haven't answered the bell for him. Probably the right play but bad results. But I'm going to try right here and say the Leafs put up more effort tonight and keep this close. I actually think the ML is a better bet but I'm a coward. Sabres have gotten hot but played last night and lost. Leafs have won twice against Buffalo this year at home as favourites as much as -145 so that is how perception has changed-some of it no doubt warranted. Leafs with a back up goalie up from the minors perhaps a negative---but honestly maybe a positive given their starter and back up play the last month.

Still 0-0 in the 1st. But get this. A big move on the Leafs endorsing this play but I turn it on the TV and the Leafs back up goalie is Scott Mckay their former equipment manager who is 40 years old. I suppose Gustavsson's knee was that bad that he couldn't even back up tonight. If this guy ever gets in the game which would be unlikely but not totally remote it will be hard for the Leafs to win this I would think---quite strongly actually---unless they were up a few.

The NHL is weird in that shit like this happens from time to time. The Wild had a 51-year-old backup for a game earlier this season because of a logistics mixup. Goalies rarely leave games because of injury (reaggravation like Vokoun's recently is a different story because they knew it could happen), so I guess it's not as big of a risk as it seems. [url]https://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/7275103/minnesota-wild-sign-51-year-old-practice-goalie-emergency-backup[/url]

I do remember that with the Wild. That was funny. I think I even saw during an intermission a profile of that incident with the individual involved. You're probably more accurate in that the goalie leaving for injury is rare and with this circumstance it would be even rarer. (my term "unlikely" is probably too high a probability) Nonetheless it is obviously a disadvantage for the bettor who wasn't aware of the situation but I'll agree quite small. But I do think I have a scenario that could play out which is more of a disadvantage. In a normal game if the starter wasn't playing well it would certainly be a viable strategy to remove the starting goalie and place the back up in hoping for better goaltending and/or a spark for the club. In this case I don't think it was a viable strategy at all. If Buffalo had taken a 3-0 I think I would have been done. Probably done anyway regardless of the back up goalie but I would have held out some hope with a pro back up especially on a puck line bet that the Leafs could make a comeback. In this situation I was just all in with Scrivens. Even a 3-2 game where clearly the Leafs starter was the problem if the option to remove him could be made it obviously would have been a help. I'm sure it is not large but a few scenarios out there anyway where I would have preferred a pro reserve goalie to give myself a chance at a back door cover or to change the flow of a game if Scrivens wasn't on it. Fortunately, it wasn't needed. FWIW Scrivens the starter actually played a good game.

I once heard a TV broadcaster say the hardest sport to protect an early big lead in is in hockey. It's such a square thing to think, though. I admit that I've been on teams (rec league, TheDude bowling-type stuff) that have done just that, but does it happen more often in hockey? I don't know. Most goals are scored on mistakes so the letdown can allow for it. It's not like football where you can also score by marching down the field.

I don't know either. One great cliche line that I've heard numerous times and never looked into is the line " The worst lead in hockey is a 2 goal lead". Presumably, more than 2 you can win and relax and a 1 goal lead you stay focused. For those who follow the puck takes bounces,etc can lead to mistakes or just odd deflection go in the net so comebacks are common. The best data I can find is from the NHL.com site which unfortunately doesn't break down how teams do with 2 goal leads or 3 goal leads but they do have some useful data. When a team scores 1st this year I calculated (without double checking my math) that about 67% of the time they'll win the game. When a team has the lead at the end of the 1st period they win the game just less than 75% of the time. I didn't do the math for the lead after the 2nd period but it looked to be 85% from just glancing at the various teams and their numbers. The Bruins in fact were perfect with over 30 leads going into the 3rd period and had won every game. Without reviewing box scores which would be its own project one might be able to use some logic to come up with some numbers for a 2 goal lead or more and make a few estimates to come up with chances of coming back but this data doesn't really cover it all the various scenarios of leads and lead changes that could go on. But we can probably guess that a 2 goal lead going into the 3rd period must be over 90% the team with the lead is winning the game if we know around 85% (assuming that estimate is okay) any lead wins the game which includes 1 goal leads. It looks like a 2 goal lead going into the 2nd period is likely over 85% a winner. And as time declines in the period you might be able to interpolate or come up with some other formula to blend in with the going into the 3rd period number. A 2 goal lead in the 1st period is trickier maybe more likely power plays in the 1st period (need to check that) and might be able to come up with a number somehow using the who scored 1st stat. 3 goal leads of course even more remote. Philly came back to tie down 3 goals last week vs. Ottawa but ultimately lost in a shootout. They were down 3-0 going into the 2nd period. We have to theorize they were in a 5% scenario to win? Just a guess. But they scored 3 in the 2nd period to tie. They were the favourites. It was probably an 8% scenario to even get a tie at some point in the game.