Malaysian Grand Prix

Malaysian Grand Prix I was looking at a few lines on this and IMO Lewis Hamilton is too much of a favourite for the rate. For instance at 5 Dimes I see he is +116 to win the race. I think last year with Vettel these lines made more sense----I think I even posted a play here against Vettel winning a race where he was favoured almost -200 early in the year. Certainly Hamilton isn't getting that type of respect but reading some things I actually think more experts would take Jenson Button to win this race over Lewis Hamilton. Button's odds are +193. One can bet either driver not to win so the Field vs. Hamilton is -136. There is some expectation of some volatility to this race so perhaps even Vettel has some value at over +600 odds to win. The reasons are tire wear on this track and a strategy Vettel's team is using where I think he has used hard tires for his qualifying. Someone with far more expertise would know more what that means but at a basic level it means that he has an extra set of soft tires to use that other drivers wouldn't have for the race and I think softer tires are usually faster per lap to use than harder tires. All of the drivers will have to be on hard tires for part of the race. Hamilton is the pole sitter and my understanding he hasn't won at this track. He's certainly capable but I just perceive some value either betting someone else to win the race or betting him not to win the race. Anyways, I should get some bonus points from the site for a post on Formula 1 whether it is accurate or not.

F Alonso wins @ 60-1 (LVH)

I could have used a ticket on Alonso and taken a week off that is for sure. I DVR'd the race and watched it. The announcer called it the biggest upset in 10 years in Formula 1. I was just throwing out names and Alonso was a candidate. They all were. Sergio Perez finished 2nd could have really won and he would have been much higher odds than Alonso I would think. He skittered off the track late lost a few seconds but otherwise looked on his way to passing Alonso or at least having a shot at it. The rain helped to jumble the mix. Button had the lead but blew it when he clipped a car passing. He might have won other than that. Hamilton did get a podium finish so a total fade against him to be not on the podium was a loser but otherwise he was a solid bet to go against. He had lost the lead in the first 10 laps. I don't think I would have laid -200 for a full bet that he wouldn't win the race but I think I would have laid -175 that he wouldn't. And at -200 I would be thinking hard and may have bet a little just because I didn't think he'd win. .