My thoughts on Uncle Mo's Derby chances

My thoughts on Uncle Mo's Derby chances I posted this on another forum in response to the ramblings of some Uncle Mo zealot who thinks there's no way the horse can possibly lose, and thought you guys might enjoy reading it. It basically sums up the problems that the likely raceday favorite is facing: Is Uncle Mo a very good (possibly even great) horse? Sure, of course he is. I don't think anyone is disputing that. Ask yourself how winter-book favorites have fared in the Derby over the years though. Not real well, and that's putting it mildly. It doesn't have anything to do with talent, it's just that there a TON of extraneous factors in play. More than any other race in the world, probably. I could spend ten minutes listing them all, and still miss some probably. That would just be a waste of time though, anyone who's been following horses as long as you have should know what i'm talking about (though you choose to just ignore it). The main problem i'm having with Uncle Mo at this point is something you yourself mentioned in the above post: "The Derby is just 6 weeks away" What has Uncle Mo done to prepare for it? Win a one-turn mile vs. a tiny field, while racing alone on a ridiculously soft pace? Sure he finished fast, but he had zero excuse not to. It doesn't prove anything. The distance of the Wood will help in his development, but again, he figures to get little-to-no pressure while racing against a tiny field. The horse just hasn't been pushed at all, which isn't going to help when he's asked to run 1 1/4 miles vs. a huge field vs. what figures to be some very serious pace pressure. And while he might be able to rate, the Derby isn't the place you want to start experimenting with those things. That's the other big problem i have with his Derby chances, his running style. If you like Uncle Mo, you had better pray that The Factor doesn't make the race. Is Uncle Mo better than The Factor? Who knows, maybe, but that's not even the issue. The issue is that The Factor (and perhaps a few others) will undoubtedly be applying serious pace pressure to a horse that hasn't faced it in a very long time, and who will be racing 1 1/4 miles for the first time, with over 15 horses in hot pursuit. Even if he puts away The Factor (or whomever), it's a long way to the wire dude, and he's probably going to be softened up. That's why frontrunners are a notoriously bad bet in that race. Maybe Uncle Mo has the talent and the stamina to overcome all this, it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world. But he's really up against it, in my opinion. And for all he has to overcome, he'll offer what, 3/1 or less? You can have him.

thanks for the write up , plenty of info to digest

When they run 20 in the Derby, it's hard to even look at a horse less than 10-1 odds. I know form matters (to a point), but the race is like an equine type of roulette. With the field so big now, luck is a huge factor in determining who wins.

Racing luck is the biggest factor in the Derby. You need look no further than what happened to Lookin at Lucky last year. He was pretty clearly the best horse in the race, at least in retrospect, and he never had a chance. Afleet Alex is another good recent example of a horse who was clearly best, but lost because he spent most of the race trying to weave his way through the obstacle course. Real shame too, i had a pretty big future ticket on that one. With regard to your 10/1 benchmark, it's probably not real far off, at least for any non-favorite. I'm convinced that even the very strongest contender has no better than a 4/1 chance on raceday.

Going back a few years, you could add Point Given to that list. Clearly the best 3 year old, but a terrible trip in the Derby. From here on out, you'll always have 20 entries, as every owner wants to say they "had a horse in the Kentucky Derby." They should think about limiting entry to the top 20 graded money earners - period. For example: If 5 horses decide not to run, they go with 15 - and don't move up the horses ranked 21 thru 25. Either that, or just limit the field size to 14 horses. The way it is now, with so many horses, strategy is secondary to racing luck. That's really too bad.

Ouch. Wasn't expecting the flop to come just yet.

Thanks DC for the info. It again shows why betting 3/1 and less is just a long term loser. Mo winning vs weak fields in the winter....ho hum.

I was hoping for that flop in the derby. Hope the horse is ok, as I still would like him in the field.

dc- did you manage to get some of the "NO" MO prop at olympic? i averaged in quite a few plays in the low to mid 300's a few weeks back. btw, eyes on NEHRO in the ark derby. i think he shows well there and is the only horse with any value for a future bet at cris right now at 50/1 . his last 2 have had some solid closing fractions. his pedigree likes the distance and if he fires in the ark derby, he'll be improving into the derby. if anyone gets a chance, look back to his maiden break at oaklawn and watch this horse coming into the backstretch. passes about 9 horses in 2-3 seconds...almost looks like a cartoon. albeit not impressive overall speed and weak competition compared to kty derby class but still respectable watching that move.

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