Nets @ Heat Game 1 Last year Heat sweep Milwaukee 4-0 and get 8 days off. Game 1 vs Chi next round
in MIA they lose outright 93-86. Flat spot, rust etc cited as cause. They then sweep Bulls
in next four games and go on to win title. I don’t think they get caught like that again
after it happening just last year PLUS they are 0-4 vs these Nets this year. Both items
certainly heavily discussed these past couple days. The four losses are interesting.
I looked at each of the four losses and they lost 3 of those games by one point (two without Wade)
and one of those was the Brooklyn home opener and the place was jacked. The 4th loss was
when Mia was in the midst of a 7 game road trip AND on a back to back and the game went 2OT.
In that 2OT (3rd game in 4 days) loss they used only 8 players with Wade AND Chalmers OUT with injury.
The 0-4 is the real discussion point because history says this is a real bad spot for Heat
to be in. 25 times a team has gone 0-4 in the reg season and then met that team in the playoffs
- the 0-4 team lost the series all 25 times. Have to believe most of those 25 instances, the 4-0 reg
season teams were the better team - probably some 1 vs 8s in there etc. Would bet that none of the
0-4 teams were then -500 in the series. Throwing the 0-25 completely out in this game.
I also don’t like Brooklyn much - thought they were overrated heading into playoffs and Jason Kidd
may eventually be some kind of decent coach but he sure isn’t right now. They just went 7 games
with some old players and a questionably healthy PG in Deron Williams (ankle).
I laid -5 -150 (2pt buy) early plus took some alt lines on Heat. Now think watching the
market is the right move. We will hear the term “rust” tonight during pre game plus all the
0-4 talk - going to hold off on betting more to see if the game will drop 1/2 pt and then
may take some more along with hitting the props. Heat coming out rusty is a possibility
but since I lean UN already that makes UN 191.5 a probable small bet.
