NHL 1P Totals

horrible day yesterday, 1-3 -3.6u DAL/CGY o1.5 -105 .. 1u MIN/CHI o1.5 -105 .. 1u WAS/ANA o1.5 -105 .. 1u Overall 14-12 -0.35u Overs 13-12 -1.35u Unders 1-0 +1.00 u

sorry for late post, got tied up today. DET/TB o1.5 -120 .. 2u ATL/PHX o1.5 -110 .. 1u WAS/SJ o1.5 +110 .. 1u tgunn

3-0 yesterday +4u, 1-2 day before. Updated record below: Overall 18-14 +2.55u Overs 17-14 +1.55u Unders 1-0 +1.00u

Also very interested in hearing from any total / hockey folks on any suggestions for the model... stats/angles or anything I may be overlooking. I really do believe these lines can be beaten with great success. tgunn

Well, let's use the local boys for an example. Most home games for the Sharks start at 7:30. But every now and then, a game starts at 7. There are two left: 23 March and 4 April. This isn't the same as a game starting at noon on a weekend. It is likely that players show up at the same time as a 7 start as they do as a 730 one. At a minimum, it seems safe to assume they don't show up a whole 30 minutes early. The result of this is that they are rushed onto the ice. I would think it makes sense to fade the Sharks in the 1P when they start at 7 at home and bet the over if both starting goalies are in. I haven't tracked this, though.

thank you for your input joel, will look at that. many plays tonite...gluck guys.. COl/STL o1.5 -120 ... 2u NYI/TOR o1.5 -120 ... 2u SJ/DET o1.5 -115 ... 1.5u PHX/PHI o1.5 -110 ... 1u BOS/CGY o1.5 +100 ... 1u tgunn

Have you done any work with second periods? I just looked and 5 Dimes has ML only but no totals. Greek only has 1st period although their menu indicates they might have them. The reason I specifically ask is that with the ends changing each team has the "long change" in the second period. This can be a problem leading to longer shifts where if pressure can be maintained more likely a goal can result. If you watch the details on several goals (you have to see the replay) the analysts will refer to the change as being a source of the problem. The second periods will have more of this challenge and there will even be several "blown changes" which lead to higher quality chances and I would think more bench minors leading to goals on power plays. Saying all that, it is probably in the line but I don't know that for totals. For moneylines, maybe there is an angle there too. A basic hypothesis might be the home team has an even bigger advantage in the second period because any line matching strategy has to be somewhat harder with a long change and you can't be certain to employ it effectively.

I have not done any 2P total work, one of my local offscreen outs did offer 2P/3P O/U lines. Funny you bring it up today because they are not posted I just checked. Normally the juice on the 2nd period overs were much higher. 1P o1.5 @ -120 was about -165/-175 o1.5 for the 2P if I remember correctly. The line change angle does make sense and I had thought about it for 2P. At the moment I am focusing more on the 1P because of the larger market/availability for me to get down on my plays. Pretty much every book offers the 1P O/U on a consistant basis. A couple of the big british books offer a TON of hockey options on period basis as well for those interested.

bloodbath yesterday, 1-4 -4.25u (rounded up was -4.225) couple plays tonite... EDM/COL o1.5 -125 .. 2u SJ/PIT o1.5 +105 .. 1u ATL/BUF o1.5 -120 .. 1u PHX/TB o1.5 -105 .. 1u

skeeter, the 2P/3P totals were posted today at my locals. game / 1p / 2p / 3p FLA/OTT / o1.5 +100 / o1.5 -150 / o1.5 -140 ATL/BUF / o1.5 -120 / o1.5 -170 / o1.5 -160 SJ/PITT / o1.5 +105 / o1.5 -145 / o1.5 -135 PHX/TB / o1.5 -105 / o1.5 -165 / o1.5 -155 EDM/COL / o1.5 -125 / o1.5 -185 / o1.5 -170 LAK/ANA / o1.5 -105 / o1.5 -160 / o1.5 -150 You can see the 2P is the highest juiced lines from the 3periods which leads me to believe it is factored into the line. The 3P is slightly less juiced, but the exta must be to account for the open net goal. Once I am done with the 1P I will run the model with 2P/3P data and see what it looks like. I am still at the infancy stage and it will take some time. One of my accounts also offers intermission betting and these lines are extremly juicy on the totals with very nice odds depending the score. They look very interesting also.