NHL Hockey Playoffs--Philly/PIttsburgh total

NHL Hockey Playoffs--Philly/PIttsburgh total An interesting situation regarding tonight's Pittsburgh/Philadelphia game as was pointed out in Lonewolf's thread that the game has a total of 7 and now is 7-120 over at most books. The Penguins have played by my count 14 of their last 15 games to the over with one tie. They have landed 3 times with a total of 7 which IMO isn't that many as they've scored through the roof obviously. Lonewolf has done a great job in getting the over as he was on it when these teams played to conclude the regular season I recall (and perhaps there were other overs on them earlier.) A line of 7 for a hockey total if I convert it to a total of 6 is probably in the range of over 6-280 so if one does bet this over 7 and has been betting the other games over 6 (I realize last one was over 6.5) you can see the steep increase in price you will pay. Since I've been a pro bettor I don't really recall any games with a line of 7 for a total but I actually do think I've seen it in a few regular season games. Long before I was ever betting for a living I do recall recreationally seeing NHL games with lined totals of at least 8.5 and I want to say I might even have seen 9.5. I think they were games involving the Oilers or the LA Kings or the old Winnipeg Jets, Black Hawks, etc. in the late 1980's. I think the initial money on this game is on the over but I think many Nevada pro bettors might end up with a value bet on the under by game time. I can play under 7+120 right now but I'm going to risk that other books might get there and so I might even be able to bet it under at a better price. It is hard to say for me if the under is the right play since it ia plainly obvious I thnk that the over 5.5 was just too low a line and was a mistake. Over 6 probably too light. However, a leap to 7 is a big deal. It is a playoff game (I realize that hasn't mattered though) and by using the conversion above you're now betting an event over 6 priced almost 75% of the time.

In a series pockmarked by porous goaltending, haphazard defense and a style reminiscent of the Gretzky-era NHL, the Penguins finally shut down the Flyers’ offense, even if just for two periods. [B]It was a return to the style that the Pens prefer but haven’t been playing.[/B] [B]“It’s not so much the pace as it is the style and wide openness that we don’t want to play at,” [/B]Craig Adams said. “The more you trade chances like that, the more you make it a 50/50 game,” Sidney Crosby added. “When you’re doing the right things and giving yourself a chance to win, you don’t allow that one chance to change the game.” When the teams were even strength, the Penguins dominated. Bylsma pointed to special teams play as the turning point of the series prior to Game 1, and he’s proved prophetic. Thirteen of the Flyers’ 23 goals in series have come via special teams or empty net. The Penguins have outscored the Flyers 15-10 during 5-on-5 play. “Special teams has kind of blown it up in this series,” Bylsma said. “The number of special teams goals has been off the charts.” So the Penguins emphasized staying out of the box — something they had more success with in the final 40 minutes than the first 20 — and being smart. Defenseman Brooks Orpik said limiting the quality of chances was a major step forward for the defensive unit as a whole, and it eased the pressure on Fleury. “We didn’t give up five breakaways on him and made it a little easier on him,” Orpik said. The hill is still steep and a slip will end the Pens’ season. But Wednesday was a boost of confidence that reverberated through the locker room Thursday afternoon. “I think it was huge for Flower, but for the rest of the guys too,” Neal said. “Flower’s good at brushing things off and getting back to being himself.” If Bylsma’s prediction that the series will eventually start to look like playoff hockey once again, the Penguins will have to look no further than the smile on Fleury’s face to understand why.

I do not handicap hockey at all but do try and pay attention once the playoffs start. It would seem to me that playing under 7 at + money is the only way to go here even though these totals have been blown out this series. I see where we have opposing plays on the board here as Wolf will continue to bang the over and Fezz releases the under. I may have missed some, but I can not recall the last hockey play Fezz has released so I wonder if this is just a play to fade the public and trend while getting a good price or something released by someone he respects. In any case it would seem playing the under would also favor the idea that the penguins get this win as I would think there is some sort of correlation between games going over when a team closes out the opponent. Not sure if that is accurate but I would imagine that if Philly gets out in front, Pitt will have to take more chances and look to score more leaving them even more open to opposing scores. That seems a bit obvious but does make sense to me. I think that Pitt has to make it a point to stay out of the box in this game and being at home may help that. Also both of these goalies are of course performing far worse than their averages and I would lean to the idea that the goal-tending has to improve from here on out in the series. I have been following lonewolf's plays in the playoffs but I think I am going to jump off it for this game. Paying a premium at an inflated number is something I just can not do and my "gut" says the scoring has to settle down from here on out in this series.

Some very good points raised here in Mike and Blue's writeups: (1) The Power Play. A bet on the under makes sense with a higher line I think because you're a betting a few things and trends which likely can't continue: (i) The Flyers have scored 60% of their opportunities and even Pittsburgh has scored over 30%. Both teams clicked at 20% during the regular season. There have also been a few SH goals I think. Pittsburgh was near the top in PK so you would just think that this is off the charts performance for the Flyers. You might expect each team to be shorhanded 3 to 4 times a game but Philly you would expect closer to 4 times a game. I think these games have these teams approaching being short handed 5 times a game. Maybe 4.5 between them. So that is a little high too. (2) I really like the angle Blue refers to in that if Pittsburgh gets behind they will open up the game. And I don't know the results but I would expect if the prices of the total aren't adjusted that more overs would hit. I'm probably paranoid when betting under but I've always been on the lookout for games where you can be hit with the double empty net goals as you see the goaltender come out even earlier. With a 2 goal deficit for Pittsburgh especially you really risk an empty net with 3 minutes left. This raises the probability like crazy that there would be an additional goal by either team. A one goal game you might get similar strategy as a regular season game. But the 3 goal deficit for Pittsburgh especially I think there is even a risk of an empty net as early as 5 minutes or more left in the game. Now fortunately, the odds say that Pittsburgh will win over 60% of the time so a Philly 3 goal lead or even a 2 goal lead late has a small probability but I would say that scenario even at only 5% results in an additional goal 97.5% of the time. (3) If one is determined to bet the game over or under another way to look at it is really get to the heart of the matter and bet the 1st period over or under. The teams have scored 20 goals in the first period so an average of 5 a game. I might actually believe that over 1.5-200 isn't that bad a bet in betting over in compared to betting over 7-110 to over 6-125 since I'll guess that the 1st period over in other games was also 1.5 and I'll guess the juice was over. I don't have that knowledge but just guessing. If one is betting the over I'd maybe say that I'd rather be paying the extra juice to just over the 1st period at the market price than paying the market price to go over 7 for the game. I noticed the 1st period at Pinnacle opened at over 1.5-174 and is now -214. Maybe it is too late for that too but if I were going over since I just felt these teams were systematic overs I might have liked that bet better than for the game.

Great thread, but taking the all the great numbers with a grain of salt, sometimes isn't it just as simple as both goalies have been atrocious this series? Paired with both teams have a huge disdain for each other and play has been very physical with a lot of Power Plays all series. For me it has to be over or pass...