NHL Mon 10/18

NHL Mon 10/18 Rare big NHL card on Sat (5-7). I don't do totals well in NHL so I will mainly stick with ML's. 21-16; +8.5 53 Colorado (+109) Avs close out their NY road trip tonight. They won at NJ on Friday and then lost at Islanders on Sat. They were looking forward to the Rangers. Unbalanced schedule in NHL, so the Avs don't get to visit MSG every year. They will be hyped for this one. They are also a good, young team that plays its collective ass off every night. Maybe 1-2 more.

okay, I lied. One total. 57/58 Dallas/Tampa Bay UN 5' (+105) Dallas's Kari Lehtonen has gone 9-1-1 with a 1.80 goals-against average in his last 11 starts against Tampa Bay when he was with Atlanta. Mike Smith starts tonight after replacing the pulled Dan Ellis on Saturday. Smith wasn't good on Saturday either, but the Stars are his former team and he usually plays well against them. 59 St. Louis (+133) The Blues squandered the early two-goal lead and lost 3-2 in a shootout at Dallas on Saturday. They outshot the Stars 43-25 but failed to capitalize on three third-period power plays, including a five-on-three for 1:07. Halak has really improved the Blues in goal coming in from Montreal where he was nails in the playoffs.

Late money on the Rangers. Didn't get the best price, but still like the side. Also getting late money on St. Louis. Let's hope for 2-1.

Shooter: Your TB/Dall under is going to be reinforced by the absence of Lecavalier for the Lightning ( hand injury). Good luck on your plays. charliej

0 goals in first 15 minutes and 3 goals in the last 5. 3 goals in the first period. Already marked this down as a loser. I told you I suck on NHL totals. I just don't know what I am doing.

Shooter: I will help with the totals once my work winds down on football.You are doing very well on sides. For what it is worth, I can't handicap NHL sides worth a hoot. I was actually looking at TB/Dall over 5.5, but backed off after learning that Lecavlier is out.He is their captain and a main cog in their offense.I thought that his absence would help out your under.

I'll take any help I can get on the totals. I just haven't had the knack for it. I think I look at the right data and I don't like to lay heavy juice on these totals even if it indicates what the best side may be.

I agree with your point on laying heavy juice on an NHL total. I won't lay more than -125 on a total. If you isolate special teams performance and scheduling dynamics, it will help you with handicapping NHL totals. None of my theories work when trying to handicap NHL sides. I gave it up years ago because it became too expensive to experiment.

Hope this information is helpful. In watching the Sharks, they've been very, very good on the power play and very, very bad at even strength. I don't mean just statistically, but having watched the games, the difference in how the team looks is astounding, and it hasn't mattered which line has been out there.

Joelshitshow: My daughter lives in San Jose and is a huge Sharks' fan. It is very important to gauge how well a team's PK and PP units play when handicapping NHL totals.I already have tickets for the Chicago/San Jose game on November 24.I have become a Sharks' fan and watch nearly every game on my NHL cable package.