NHL Notes going into Saturday and Bet I'm impressed by Ottawa even without Spezza but Karlsson is bigger loss. They play the Leafs tonight. I have no bet on it. No data here you have to just go by feel. Leafs not as strong at home and a deep rivalry game vs. a very beat up team. However, it is a team that still has some quality players especially Anderson the goalie. I don't think there is value on the Leafs and I'd rather have Ottawa but I'll need a bargain on them.Maybe something later.
Another note from last night I saw Lehtonen leave the net for Dallas in the 1st period. Have to watch his status he 's a top goalie in the NHL and Bachman is a fairly sizable downgrade if he plays regularly going forward. (It was a little deja vu for me since I was on Dallas and Bachman gave up what I viewed as a soft goal early in the 2nd went down 3-1 but Dallas came back to win 4-3. Shneider not good last night)
One play I like for tonight but not without my usual trepidation are the Ducks vs. the Predators. I feel there is value in either PL or ML. I played PL (although Pinnacle has actually gone 4 cents cheaper on PL since my bet now at +1.5-234).
Reasons for Liking
(1) Anaheim might be the best team in the league. Won 5-2 in Detroit last night and IMO they really outplayed Detroit, burned them on all of their mistakes. It was a tilted ice surface. I read Zetterberg said he felt Detroit played well not sure what game he was watching. (He really didn't seem to be playing that well so I assumed he was watching something).
(2) They're 10-2-1. Just too good a record to ignore. They beat Chicago the other night.
(3) Fasth or Hiller seem capable in net. Fasth might be getting a penalty on him in the betting line for playing but he's the first rookie to win 7 games straight as a goalie. He's 30 years old not a typical rookie. I hear Hiller may even play tonight as he's getting healthier and I think betting would be on Anaheim from this point if he does.
(4) Most important is price. Anaheim was a dog in Chicago I forget the number but around +150. Chicago was -125 in Nashville the other night. And now Nashville is -144 vs. Anaheim at home. We know Anaheim beat Chicago but we also know Anaheim back to back.
Reason for Disliking:
(1) Preds are great on home ice. However, I did lose on them last week when they did get beat by Chicago 3-0l
(2) Rinne hasn't allowed a goal since that game vs. Chicago.
(3) Anaheim on back to back and will Anaheim continue to bring it.
It is just too high a price to pay on Nashville against this Ducks squad. If the game drops to Nashville -120 I would consider jumping over to Nashville and hoping for the one goal game but at this price I'll go with the Ducks for now. I don't even think -120 is a fair line on this game as I have just been so impressed by Anaheim that this game could be close to PK. And that is giving the Preds alot of credit. They continually don't get much O from few shots on net and I don't think are as good as some other teams they've had the past few years.