NHL Saturday---Colorado vs. LA Kings At least as high as +155 available on the Avs and maybe a little better I think a very good price for this dog. I have bet it both PL and ML but will cut back my bet hopefully making some money on the scalp (cut back either way).
The Avs don't get a lot of backing and the Kings are the latest Stanley Cup champs so they get a premium in the line. They haven't played that well this year. They did have some success on the road and no doubt they are a good team but -170 favourite is a big number vs. Colorado. Bottom line IMO Colorado isn't as bad a team as this line indicates. And if they win today they'll have more points than the Kings.
Colorado does have a few situations going in their favour. One is the return of Landeskog. He's certainly in their top 3 forwards and they've missed him. He wouldn't be worth a tonne on a line but certainly worth a few percent as the Avs aren't as good a team without him. I think this isn't in the line at all.
The Kings also return from a long road trip back on the west coast. It has long been a situation that has upset written all over it. Colorado last played Wednesday should be rested going into today's game. However, I do wish there was one fewer day between Kings games. I'll have to concede that the extra day makes this not a premium situation returning from a road trip.
If both of these factors were in the line to me this line would be -200 and there is no way that is a reasonable line for this game.
I'm not a trend player---in fact I like betting trends to end---but the Avs have had a lot of success in LA recently I think winning the last 5 or so (or was it 7?). The Kings got to be aware of that although Sutter as coach hasn't been there for most of that.
I may end up only on the Avs puck line and I think the Avs are a decent bet to +145. I wouldn't think a bad bet at +135 either but no need to have to think about that scenario now.
