NHL total (scheduling dynamic) Posting an NHL total on a NFL playoff Sunday is analagous to putting a baloney sandwich on the menu of a 5-Star, gourmet restaurant.Even though, it is probably a weak play, I wanted to share an NHL scheduling dynamic that has proven profitable for me over the years.
I played Nashville/Chicago over 5.5(+120)based strictly on today's scheduling quirk.Last night, Nashville won a 3-2 (shootout)home game versus Chicago.In an infrequent scheduling dynamic, these teams play in Chicago tonight.My theory has been to play the OVER in the second of a "home and home" series when the first game went UNDER the total.In addition, the game must be played on back-to-back days( no rest).Last night,witnessed a similar scheduling dynamic. We won the OVER 5.5 wager on the Columbus/Detroit game in the second period (with a final score of 6-5). The Redwings and Blue Jackets played an UNDER on Friday with a score of 3-2.
Unlike many technical theories, systems and trends, this handicapping tool has some solid reasoning for why it is profitable.Since one variable requires that the first game must have gone UNDER the total, it was most likely a tight checking, more conservative game.Obviously, that strategy did not work for one of the teams.
In addition, we are most likely to get either a tired starting goalie or a weaker backup goalie in the second of back-to-back games. Hockey is a "collision" sport comprised of many guys with macho personalities. Players have long memories from last night's contest. They know who gave them a cheap shot, who stuck a stick in their ribs and who elbowed them in the face last night. Tonight, they get a chance for payback.This will probably lead to more penalties in tonight's contest.Since last night's game finished with an overtime shootout, we may end up with some tired legs on defense.Players also learned what shots and power play strategies did not work last night. They have an immediate opportunity to make those adjustments in tonight's contest.
Tonight's game may be a weak example for the handicapping strategy. There is a reason that the UNDER 5.5 is priced at -140. Any handicapper who utilizes strictly technical analysis will be betting the UNDER. I could share at least 3 paragraphs highlighting technical reasons for the UNDER 5.5.However, there are times to be a contrarian and use a scheduling dynamic as a reason to make a play.
Besides the scheduling dynamic, we do have a couple of other factors in our favor.Even though the Predators are a "dead nuts UNDER" team,the OVER has cashed in 6 of their last 8 matchups played with no rest.Early reports indicate that we will get both backups in goal tonight.Nashville will start Lindback tonight. Chicago will be starting 35 year old Turco in net. He may be rusty since he hasn't played since January 5.It should be pointed out that Turco has allowed 3.02 g.p.g.This is nearly a full goal more than starter Crawford.We probably need a "chippy" game to reach 6 goals. Chicago has the league's best power play (24.7%) and ranks in the bottom half of the NHL with its penalty kill unit (77.6%).
Even though we may not cash a winning ticket on tonight's OVER 5.5 (+120), you may want to look for rare "home and home" matchups for the rest of the season.It could prove to be profitable.
Good luck,
charliej
